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Canadian National Railway (TSE:CNR) jumps 3.1% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns
If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Canadian National Railway Company (TSE:CNR) share price is up 27% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 0.9% in the last year.
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Canadian National Railway investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
View our latest analysis for Canadian National Railway
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Canadian National Railway managed to grow its earnings per share at 6.9% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 5% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Canadian National Railway's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Canadian National Railway's TSR for the last 5 years was 39%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Canadian National Railway shareholders gained a total return of 1.1% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 7% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Canadian National Railway better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Canadian National Railway you should be aware of.
Canadian National Railway is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:CNR
Canadian National Railway
Engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and marine transportation and logistics business in Canada and the United States.
Solid track record established dividend payer.