Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Mako Mining Corp. (CVE:MKO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Mako Mining
What Is Mako Mining's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Mako Mining had US$18.2m of debt in March 2022, down from US$21.2m, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$688.0k in cash leading to net debt of about US$17.5m.
A Look At Mako Mining's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Mako Mining had liabilities of US$25.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.26m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$688.0k in cash and US$1.13m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$27.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Of course, Mako Mining has a market capitalization of US$167.3m, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Mako Mining has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.2 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 1.7 times the interest expense. So one way or the other, it's clear the debt levels are not trivial. Notably, Mako Mining made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, but improved that to positive EBIT of US$4.0m in the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Mako Mining's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the most recent year, Mako Mining recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
On our analysis Mako Mining's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. In particular, interest cover gives us cold feet. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Mako Mining is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Mako Mining that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSXV:MKO
Mako Mining
Operates as a gold mining and exploration company in Nicaragua.
Excellent balance sheet with proven track record.