Will Franco-Nevada's (TSX:FNV) Australia Strategy Broaden Its Revenue Base or Heighten Its Risks?

• Franco-Nevada recently announced it will release its third quarter 2025 results on November 3, after market close, followed by a conference call to discuss the results on November 4.
• In addition, the company is expanding its royalty and streaming business in Australia, focusing on supporting junior gold developers amid record-high gold prices and increased sector mergers and acquisitions.
• We'll examine how Franco-Nevada's push into the Australian gold market may influence its long-term revenue diversity and risk profile.

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Franco-Nevada Investment Narrative Recap

Owning Franco-Nevada shares means believing in the enduring value of gold and the company’s ability to generate steady returns by expanding its royalty and streaming portfolio. The recent announcement of Q3 2025 results and a push into Australia appear consistent with Franco-Nevada’s strategy, but are unlikely to materially change the biggest short-term catalyst, continued high gold prices, or mitigate the key risk of revenue concentration in a few assets.

Among recent company developments, Franco-Nevada’s acquisition of a 1.0% royalty on AngloGold Ashanti’s Arthur Gold Project stands out. This move expands the portfolio in a major gold-producing region, but the implications for future revenue and earnings depend on execution and underlying gold market conditions.

On the other hand, investors should be aware of the concentration risk tied to a handful of major assets such as...

Read the full narrative on Franco-Nevada (it's free!)

Franco-Nevada's outlook anticipates $2.3 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 19.5% annual revenue growth rate and a $515 million increase in earnings from the current level of $785 million.

Uncover how Franco-Nevada's forecasts yield a CA$303.72 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate fair value for Franco-Nevada between US$124 and US$304 per share. While views diverge, the company remains highly sensitive to swings in gold prices, which may trigger substantial earnings volatility. Explore how different investors weigh these opposing forces and form your own outlook.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Franco-Nevada - why the stock might be worth as much as 6% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Franco-Nevada Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Franco-Nevada research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Franco-Nevada research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Franco-Nevada's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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