Centerra Gold Inc. Just Recorded A 5.8% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a pretty great week for Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to CA$10.08 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Centerra Gold beat revenue expectations by 5.8%, at US$300m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.13, some 2.0% short of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Centerra Gold. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, Centerra Gold's five analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.20b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 288% to US$0.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.69 in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Centerra Gold's future following the latest results, with a massive increase in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Centerra Gold

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of CA$11.78, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Centerra Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$14.05 and the most bearish at CA$8.98 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Centerra Gold shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.5% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Centerra Gold's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Centerra Gold's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Centerra Gold going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Centerra Gold that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.