Assessing Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) After Its Crane Creek Earn‑In Growth Move

Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) just signed a definitive earn-in deal on Headwater Gold’s Crane Creek project in Idaho, giving it a path to 70% ownership through staged spending and a preliminary economic assessment.

See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.

The Crane Creek earn-in comes on top of a busy few weeks of conference appearances, and the market seems to like the growth story, with a roughly 59% 3 month share price return and a powerful 1 year total shareholder return of about 121% suggesting momentum is firmly building.

If this kind of renewed interest in gold names has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is out there via fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the share price already near analyst targets but still trading at a steep discount to some intrinsic value estimates, is Centerra Gold now a compelling opportunity, or is the market already pricing in the next phase of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.1% Undervalued

Compared to the last close of CA$18.33, the most widely followed narrative estimates fair value only slightly higher, implying limited but positive upside if its assumptions hold.

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$12.567 for Centerra Gold based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$14.86, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$9.48.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, shifting profit margins and a lower future earnings multiple can still back a higher fair value than today’s price? The narrative lays out the full equation, including a declining share count and a specific discount rate that quietly does the heavy lifting. If you want to see how those moving parts combine into that fair value call, you will need to dig into the numbers behind it.

Result: Fair Value of $18.53 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if Mount Milligan underdelivers or Oksut margins are squeezed by rising royalties, the current undervaluation case could quickly unravel.

Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.

Build Your Own Centerra Gold Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the data yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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