Conifex Timber Inc.'s (TSE:CFF) Business Is Trailing The Industry But Its Shares Aren't

There wouldn't be many who think Conifex Timber Inc.'s (TSE:CFF) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x is worth a mention when the median P/S for the Forestry industry in Canada is similar at about 0.3x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Conifex Timber

How Has Conifex Timber Performed Recently?

It looks like revenue growth has deserted Conifex Timber recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to only match most other companies at best over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Conifex Timber, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Conifex Timber's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 45% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 3.9% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Conifex Timber's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our look at Conifex Timber revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Conifex Timber that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.