Canadian Natural Resources Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) recently reported its yearly numbers. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CA$36b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 16% to hit CA$2.85 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Canadian Natural Resources are now predicting revenues of CA$38.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 8.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to CA$3.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$38.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$3.68 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Canadian Natural Resources' earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Canadian Natural Resources

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$54.47, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Canadian Natural Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$63.00 and the most bearish at CA$44.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Canadian Natural Resources' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Canadian Natural Resources' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Canadian Natural Resources' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$54.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Canadian Natural Resources analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Canadian Natural Resources that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.