Canadian Natural Resources Limited

TSX:CNQ Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$99.3b

Canadian Natural Resources Valuation

Is CNQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CNQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CNQ (CA$47.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$93.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CNQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CNQ?

Key metric: As CNQ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CNQ. This is calculated by dividing CNQ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CNQ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.1x
EarningsCA$7.60b
Market CapCA$99.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CNQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.5x
TOU Tourmaline Oil
15.6x25.5%CA$23.3b
ARX ARC Resources
12.3x13.2%CA$15.2b
MEG MEG Energy
13.4x-1.3%CA$6.7b
SCR Strathcona Resources
8.8x-9.6%CA$6.9b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
13.1x3.3%CA$99.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.3x-43.9%US$65.03m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.93m
CNQ 13.1xIndustry Avg. 11.0xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CNQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CNQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.1x
Fair PE Ratio16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CNQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CNQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$47.21
CA$56.13
+18.9%
7.2%CA$63.00CA$48.00n/a20
Nov ’25CA$47.28
CA$56.28
+19.0%
7.1%CA$63.00CA$48.00n/a20
Oct ’25CA$46.92
CA$54.60
+16.4%
8.7%CA$62.00CA$44.00n/a20
Sep ’25CA$48.78
CA$56.05
+14.9%
7.6%CA$62.00CA$48.00n/a20
Aug ’25CA$48.48
CA$56.05
+15.6%
7.5%CA$62.00CA$47.00n/a20
Jul ’25CA$48.73
CA$55.78
+14.5%
7.1%CA$62.00CA$47.00n/a20
Jun ’25CA$52.35
CA$56.63
+8.2%
7.1%CA$63.00CA$47.00n/a20
May ’25CA$51.51
CA$55.39
+7.5%
8.6%CA$63.00CA$45.50n/a21
Apr ’25CA$52.35
CA$51.75
-1.1%
7.5%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a21
Mar ’25CA$48.85
CA$49.75
+1.8%
6.2%CA$55.00CA$43.00n/a22
Feb ’25CA$42.24
CA$48.07
+13.8%
6.2%CA$52.50CA$43.00n/a22
Jan ’25CA$43.41
CA$48.61
+12.0%
5.6%CA$52.50CA$43.00n/a22
Dec ’24CA$45.82
CA$49.58
+8.2%
6.2%CA$57.00CA$45.00n/a22
Nov ’24CA$44.86
CA$48.93
+9.1%
6.3%CA$56.00CA$44.50CA$47.2821
Oct ’24CA$43.92
CA$47.02
+7.1%
5.9%CA$52.50CA$43.00CA$46.9221
Sep ’24CA$44.17
CA$45.86
+3.8%
4.6%CA$50.00CA$41.00CA$48.7821
Aug ’24CA$40.45
CA$44.86
+10.9%
6.0%CA$50.00CA$40.00CA$48.4821
Jul ’24CA$37.24
CA$44.75
+20.2%
6.6%CA$50.00CA$40.00CA$48.7320
Jun ’24CA$36.91
CA$45.65
+23.7%
7.9%CA$52.50CA$40.00CA$52.3520
May ’24CA$40.80
CA$45.95
+12.6%
8.3%CA$55.00CA$40.00CA$51.5121
Apr ’24CA$37.40
CA$45.86
+22.6%
7.1%CA$52.50CA$40.00CA$52.3521
Mar ’24CA$39.38
CA$46.26
+17.5%
9.5%CA$59.00CA$38.00CA$48.8521
Feb ’24CA$39.35
CA$46.09
+17.1%
9.4%CA$59.00CA$38.00CA$42.2422
Jan ’24CA$37.60
CA$46.36
+23.3%
8.6%CA$59.00CA$40.00CA$43.4121
Dec ’23CA$40.17
CA$46.75
+16.4%
8.4%CA$59.00CA$40.00CA$45.8220
Nov ’23CA$41.12
CA$45.58
+10.8%
8.6%CA$59.00CA$39.00CA$44.8620

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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