Tourmaline Oil Corp.

TSX:TOU Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$24.2b

Tourmaline Oil Valuation

Is TOU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOU (CA$65.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$83.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOU?

Key metric: As TOU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TOU. This is calculated by dividing TOU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TOU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.6x
EarningsCA$1.56b
Market CapCA$24.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.7x
ARX ARC Resources
11.9x13.2%CA$15.0b
SCR Strathcona Resources
8.6x-9.6%CA$6.7b
MEG MEG Energy
13.1x0.1%CA$6.6b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
13.1x2.8%CA$99.7b
TOU Tourmaline Oil
15.6x25.5%CA$24.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.1x-41.1%US$60.00m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.2xn/aUS$3.92m
TOU 15.6xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.6x
Fair PE Ratio19.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$65.24
CA$77.53
+18.8%
6.7%CA$93.00CA$70.00n/a17
Nov ’25CA$63.53
CA$77.41
+21.9%
7.3%CA$93.00CA$67.00n/a17
Oct ’25CA$63.27
CA$76.93
+21.6%
7.3%CA$93.00CA$67.00n/a15
Sep ’25CA$61.42
CA$78.07
+27.1%
5.9%CA$93.00CA$72.50n/a15
Aug ’25CA$58.66
CA$77.69
+32.4%
5.7%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Jul ’25CA$62.05
CA$77.63
+25.1%
6.0%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Jun ’25CA$67.61
CA$77.50
+14.6%
5.9%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
May ’25CA$65.79
CA$77.34
+17.6%
6.0%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Apr ’25CA$63.96
CA$76.63
+19.8%
6.4%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Mar ’25CA$62.33
CA$77.84
+24.9%
6.5%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Feb ’25CA$57.88
CA$79.09
+36.7%
6.1%CA$90.00CA$70.00n/a16
Jan ’25CA$59.59
CA$83.03
+39.3%
7.6%CA$100.00CA$74.00n/a16
Dec ’24CA$65.51
CA$84.34
+28.7%
6.7%CA$100.00CA$77.00CA$66.0816
Nov ’24CA$73.57
CA$83.72
+13.8%
7.5%CA$100.00CA$77.00CA$63.5316
Oct ’24CA$68.35
CA$81.53
+19.3%
8.7%CA$100.00CA$75.00CA$63.2715
Sep ’24CA$70.87
CA$80.19
+13.1%
9.0%CA$100.00CA$71.00CA$61.4216
Aug ’24CA$68.44
CA$79.00
+15.4%
10.0%CA$100.00CA$70.00CA$58.6616
Jul ’24CA$62.42
CA$79.50
+27.4%
10.7%CA$102.00CA$70.00CA$62.0514
Jun ’24CA$56.79
CA$79.71
+40.4%
11.3%CA$102.00CA$66.00CA$67.6114
May ’24CA$60.81
CA$80.21
+31.9%
12.0%CA$102.00CA$65.00CA$65.7914
Apr ’24CA$56.32
CA$85.36
+51.6%
13.0%CA$112.00CA$66.00CA$63.9614
Mar ’24CA$62.33
CA$92.07
+47.7%
8.5%CA$112.00CA$80.00CA$62.3314
Feb ’24CA$60.41
CA$92.43
+53.0%
8.2%CA$112.00CA$80.00CA$57.8814
Jan ’24CA$68.32
CA$98.83
+44.7%
7.7%CA$117.00CA$89.00CA$59.5912
Dec ’23CA$80.51
CA$98.92
+22.9%
7.7%CA$117.00CA$89.00CA$65.5112

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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