Cameco (TSX:CCO): Examining Valuation After Major Slovakia Supply Deal and 2025 Production Update

Cameco (TSX:CCO) is drawing attention after announcing a major long-term uranium supply agreement with Slovenské elektrárne. At the same time, the company revised down its 2025 production guidance, which has sparked fresh questions from investors.

See our latest analysis for Cameco.

Cameco’s big supply deal and updated outlook come as the stock powers near all-time highs, with momentum clearly building. After a robust 61.6% year-to-date share price return and a stellar total shareholder return of 72.1% over the past year, Cameco’s underlying three- and five-year total returns show just how much confidence has grown around its long-term potential.

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With shares hovering close to record highs, the key question is whether Cameco’s strong performance and new contracts leave further upside for investors, or if future growth is already fully reflected in today’s price.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

Cameco’s last close of CA$121.35 is only slightly above the narrative fair value estimate of CA$119.88, suggesting that the stock is largely aligned with consensus expectations heading into the next phase of growth.

Momentum in utility contracting is building, but current volumes are subdued. As uncovered utility uranium needs through 2045 accumulate, the eventual surge in term contracting is expected to drive material price and volume upside, improving both Cameco's revenue growth and pricing power (with likely gains to net margins).

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s powering this premium? The pricing logic banks on a future where demand for uranium soars and Cameco’s profits climb at a pace few dared to predict. Find out which bold projections and margin assumptions are fueling this calculated fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $119.88 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent production hiccups or unexpected delays in new nuclear projects worldwide could quickly change the outlook for Cameco's growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Cameco narrative.

Build Your Own Cameco Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dive into the numbers firsthand, you can craft your own view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Cameco research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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