Africa Oil Corp.

TSX:AOI Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$819.9m

Africa Oil Valuation

Is AOI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AOI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AOI (CA$1.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$3.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AOI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AOI?

Key metric: As AOI is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for AOI. This is calculated by dividing AOI's market cap by their current book value.
What is AOI's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1x
BookUS$548.70m
Market CapUS$569.67m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does AOI's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for AOI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
CJ Cardinal Energy
1x6.3%CA$977.4m
VLE Valeura Energy
1.5x-73.0%CA$664.5m
KEC Kiwetinohk Energy
0.9xn/aCA$682.6m
FEC Frontera Energy
0.2xn/aCA$616.5m
AOI Africa Oil
1x84.7%CA$819.9m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: AOI is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does AOI's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YGR Yangarra Resources
0.2xn/aUS$64.49m
TWM Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
0.2x110.6%US$34.39m
LCFS Tidewater Renewables
0.2x110.5%US$20.20m
BNG Bengal Energy
0.2xn/aUS$3.37m
AOI 1.0xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies21PB00.81.62.43.24+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AOI's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AOI PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AOI's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AOI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$1.81
CA$3.14
+73.7%
9.3%CA$3.53CA$2.77n/a4
Dec ’25CA$1.97
CA$3.06
+55.4%
8.6%CA$3.42CA$2.75n/a4
Nov ’25CA$1.75
CA$3.05
+74.5%
8.6%CA$3.40CA$2.75n/a4
Oct ’25CA$1.79
CA$3.27
+82.9%
8.7%CA$3.50CA$2.80n/a4
Sep ’25CA$2.06
CA$3.25
+57.6%
8.8%CA$3.50CA$2.77n/a4
Aug ’25CA$2.30
CA$3.29
+42.8%
8.5%CA$3.50CA$2.81n/a4
Jul ’25CA$2.44
CA$3.30
+35.3%
8.5%CA$3.52CA$2.83n/a4
Jun ’25CA$2.61
CA$3.21
+23.0%
9.3%CA$3.50CA$2.80n/a3
May ’25CA$2.43
CA$3.21
+32.3%
9.1%CA$3.49CA$2.81n/a3
Apr ’25CA$2.39
CA$3.20
+33.8%
9.4%CA$3.50CA$2.79n/a3
Mar ’25CA$2.19
CA$3.19
+45.7%
9.5%CA$3.50CA$2.78n/a3
Feb ’25CA$2.50
CA$3.19
+27.6%
9.5%CA$3.50CA$2.78n/a3
Jan ’25CA$2.49
CA$3.39
+36.1%
13.4%CA$3.76CA$2.75n/a3
Dec ’24CA$2.54
CA$3.29
+29.4%
14.3%CA$3.76CA$2.82CA$1.972
Nov ’24CA$2.60
CA$3.28
+26.1%
14.4%CA$3.75CA$2.81CA$1.752
Oct ’24CA$2.73
CA$3.26
+19.5%
14.9%CA$3.75CA$2.78CA$1.792
Sep ’24CA$3.26
CA$3.27
+0.3%
14.8%CA$3.76CA$2.79CA$2.062
Aug ’24CA$3.14
CA$3.24
+3.1%
16.1%CA$3.76CA$2.71CA$2.302
Jul ’24CA$2.82
CA$3.10
+10.1%
12.8%CA$3.50CA$2.71CA$2.442
Jun ’24CA$2.88
CA$3.15
+9.3%
11.2%CA$3.50CA$2.80CA$2.612
May ’24CA$2.62
CA$3.14
+20.0%
11.3%CA$3.50CA$2.79CA$2.432
Apr ’24CA$3.03
CA$3.16
+4.3%
10.7%CA$3.50CA$2.82CA$2.392
Mar ’24CA$2.80
CA$3.02
+7.9%
7.4%CA$3.25CA$2.80CA$2.192
Feb ’24CA$2.72
CA$3.00
+10.3%
8.3%CA$3.25CA$2.75CA$2.502
Jan ’24CA$2.49
CA$3.16
+26.7%
11.3%CA$3.51CA$2.80CA$2.492
Dec ’23CA$2.87
CA$3.12
+8.6%
12.3%CA$3.50CA$2.73CA$2.542

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 06:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Africa Oil Corp. is covered by 44 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anders HolteABG Sundal Collier
Matthew CooperBarclays
Lydia RainforthBarclays