Africa Oil Corp.

TSX:AOI Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$837.3m

Africa Oil Valuation

Is AOI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AOI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AOI (CA$1.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$3.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AOI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AOI?

Key metric: As AOI is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for AOI. This is calculated by dividing AOI's market cap by their current book value.
What is AOI's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1.1x
BookUS$548.70m
Market CapUS$594.28m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does AOI's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for AOI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
FO Falcon Oil & Gas
1.5xn/aCA$94.3m
SDE Spartan Delta
1.2xn/aCA$576.4m
RECO Reconnaissance Energy Africa
1.7xn/aCA$257.6m
BIR Birchcliff Energy
0.6xn/aCA$1.3b
AOI Africa Oil
1.1x66.9%CA$837.3m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does AOI's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FEC Frontera Energy
0.2xn/aUS$445.56m
BNE Bonterra Energy
0.2x-82.7%US$86.63m
CNE Canacol Energy
0.2x48.9%US$73.36m
YGR Yangarra Resources
0.2xn/aUS$65.87m
AOI 1.1xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies24PB012345+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (1.2x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AOI's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AOI PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1.1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AOI's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AOI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$1.89
CA$3.08
+62.8%
8.5%CA$3.44CA$2.77n/a4
Nov ’25CA$1.75
CA$3.05
+74.5%
8.6%CA$3.40CA$2.75n/a4
Oct ’25CA$1.79
CA$3.27
+82.9%
8.7%CA$3.50CA$2.80n/a4
Sep ’25CA$2.06
CA$3.25
+57.6%
8.8%CA$3.50CA$2.77n/a4
Aug ’25CA$2.30
CA$3.29
+42.8%
8.5%CA$3.50CA$2.81n/a4
Jul ’25CA$2.44
CA$3.30
+35.3%
8.5%CA$3.52CA$2.83n/a4
Jun ’25CA$2.61
CA$3.21
+23.0%
9.3%CA$3.50CA$2.80n/a3
May ’25CA$2.43
CA$3.21
+32.3%
9.1%CA$3.49CA$2.81n/a3
Apr ’25CA$2.39
CA$3.20
+33.8%
9.4%CA$3.50CA$2.79n/a3
Mar ’25CA$2.19
CA$3.19
+45.7%
9.5%CA$3.50CA$2.78n/a3
Feb ’25CA$2.50
CA$3.19
+27.6%
9.5%CA$3.50CA$2.78n/a3
Jan ’25CA$2.49
CA$3.39
+36.1%
13.4%CA$3.76CA$2.75n/a3
Dec ’24CA$2.54
CA$3.29
+29.4%
14.3%CA$3.76CA$2.82n/a2
Nov ’24CA$2.60
CA$3.28
+26.1%
14.4%CA$3.75CA$2.81CA$1.752
Oct ’24CA$2.73
CA$3.26
+19.5%
14.9%CA$3.75CA$2.78CA$1.792
Sep ’24CA$3.26
CA$3.27
+0.3%
14.8%CA$3.76CA$2.79CA$2.062
Aug ’24CA$3.14
CA$3.24
+3.1%
16.1%CA$3.76CA$2.71CA$2.302
Jul ’24CA$2.82
CA$3.10
+10.1%
12.8%CA$3.50CA$2.71CA$2.442
Jun ’24CA$2.88
CA$3.15
+9.3%
11.2%CA$3.50CA$2.80CA$2.612
May ’24CA$2.62
CA$3.14
+20.0%
11.3%CA$3.50CA$2.79CA$2.432
Apr ’24CA$3.03
CA$3.16
+4.3%
10.7%CA$3.50CA$2.82CA$2.392
Mar ’24CA$2.80
CA$3.02
+7.9%
7.4%CA$3.25CA$2.80CA$2.192
Feb ’24CA$2.72
CA$3.00
+10.3%
8.3%CA$3.25CA$2.75CA$2.502
Jan ’24CA$2.49
CA$3.16
+26.7%
11.3%CA$3.51CA$2.80CA$2.492
Dec ’23CA$2.87
CA$3.12
+8.6%
12.3%CA$3.50CA$2.73CA$2.542
Nov ’23CA$3.35
CA$3.15
-6.0%
11.0%CA$3.50CA$2.80CA$2.602

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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