Valeura Energy Valuation

Is VLE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLE (CA$6.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$6.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLE is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLE?

Key metric: As VLE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VLE. This is calculated by dividing VLE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VLE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsUS$50.29m
Market CapUS$490.74m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VLE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VLE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.5x
PIPE Pipestone Energy
3.5xn/aCA$559.4m
SOIL Saturn Oil & Gas
2.1x-9.2%CA$436.5m
TAL PetroTal
3.5x-2.8%CA$547.5m
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-41.1%CA$85.7m
VLE Valeura Energy
10x-73.0%CA$695.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VLE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-41.1%US$60.49m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.37m
VLE 10.0xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VLE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio2.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VLE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$6.68
CA$9.84
+47.3%
11.6%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a5
Dec ’25CA$6.22
CA$9.84
+58.2%
11.6%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a5
Nov ’25CA$4.56
CA$9.70
+112.7%
12.9%CA$12.00CA$8.50n/a5
Oct ’25CA$4.30
CA$10.05
+133.7%
11.8%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a4
Sep ’25CA$5.09
CA$10.05
+97.4%
11.8%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a4
Aug ’25CA$4.27
CA$9.88
+131.3%
12.5%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a4
Jul ’25CA$4.30
CA$9.95
+131.4%
12.0%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a4
Jun ’25CA$5.60
CA$9.95
+77.7%
12.0%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a4
May ’25CA$5.47
CA$10.10
+84.6%
13.4%CA$12.00CA$9.00n/a3
Apr ’25CA$5.11
CA$9.83
+92.4%
12.0%CA$11.50CA$9.00n/a3
Mar ’25CA$3.94
CA$8.67
+120.0%
11.9%CA$10.00CA$7.50n/a3
Feb ’25CA$3.46
CA$7.63
+120.6%
14.0%CA$9.00CA$6.40n/a3
Jan ’25CA$2.84
CA$7.63
+168.8%
14.0%CA$9.00CA$6.40n/a3
Dec ’24CA$3.80
CA$7.63
+100.9%
14.0%CA$9.00CA$6.40CA$6.223
Nov ’24CA$4.23
CA$7.33
+73.2%
12.6%CA$8.25CA$6.40CA$4.562
Oct ’24CA$3.44
CA$7.33
+112.9%
12.6%CA$8.25CA$6.40CA$4.302
Sep ’24CA$2.28
CA$7.18
+214.7%
15.0%CA$8.25CA$6.10CA$5.092
Aug ’24CA$2.28
CA$7.13
+212.5%
15.8%CA$8.25CA$6.00CA$4.272
Jul ’24CA$1.82
CA$7.13
+291.5%
15.8%CA$8.25CA$6.00CA$4.302
Jun ’24CA$1.94
CA$7.13
+267.3%
15.8%CA$8.25CA$6.00CA$5.602
May ’24CA$2.37
CA$7.13
+200.6%
15.8%CA$8.25CA$6.00CA$5.472
Apr ’24CA$2.94
CA$6.73
+128.7%
22.7%CA$8.25CA$5.20CA$5.112
Mar ’24CA$2.34
CA$6.48
+176.7%
27.4%CA$8.25CA$4.70CA$3.942
Feb ’24CA$2.54
CA$6.48
+154.9%
27.4%CA$8.25CA$4.70CA$3.462
Jan ’24CA$2.09
CA$6.38
+205.0%
29.4%CA$8.25CA$4.50CA$2.842
Dec ’23CA$0.64
CA$1.78
+177.3%
18.3%CA$2.10CA$1.45CA$3.802

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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