Surge Energy Inc.

TSX:SGY Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$554.0m

Surge Energy Valuation

Is SGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SGY (CA$5.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$9.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SGY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SGY?

Key metric: As SGY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SGY. This is calculated by dividing SGY's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SGY's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1x
SalesCA$549.07m
Market CapCA$554.04m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SGY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SGY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
OBE Obsidian Energy
0.8x10.4%CA$577.4m
TAL PetroTal
1x3.3%CA$492.5m
FEC Frontera Energy
0.4xn/aCA$623.7m
KEC Kiwetinohk Energy
2.9x11.4%CA$1.4b
SGY Surge Energy
1x-2.9%CA$554.0m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SGY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SGY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

17 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKI Parkland
0.2x2.3%US$3.98b
GEI Gibson Energy
0.3x-5.6%US$2.79b
SES Secure Energy Services
0.4x-54.2%US$2.63b
FEC Frontera Energy
0.4xn/aUS$434.32m
SGY 1.0xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies27PS01.63.24.86.48+
17 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SGY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SGY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SGY PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1x
Fair PS Ratio1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SGY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SGY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$5.48
CA$10.73
+95.7%
16.6%CA$13.75CA$8.50n/a10
Dec ’25CA$5.70
CA$11.05
+93.9%
15.0%CA$13.75CA$8.50n/a10
Nov ’25CA$5.78
CA$11.30
+95.5%
14.9%CA$13.75CA$9.00n/a10
Oct ’25CA$6.20
CA$11.75
+89.5%
12.7%CA$13.75CA$9.00n/a9
Sep ’25CA$6.53
CA$11.94
+82.9%
10.1%CA$13.75CA$10.50n/a9
Aug ’25CA$6.83
CA$11.94
+74.9%
10.1%CA$13.75CA$10.50n/a9
Jul ’25CA$7.03
CA$11.83
+68.3%
10.8%CA$13.75CA$10.00n/a9
Jun ’25CA$7.29
CA$11.83
+62.2%
10.2%CA$13.75CA$10.00n/a10
May ’25CA$7.15
CA$11.75
+64.3%
10.2%CA$13.75CA$10.00n/a10
Apr ’25CA$7.83
CA$11.48
+46.6%
11.8%CA$13.75CA$10.00n/a10
Mar ’25CA$6.92
CA$12.28
+77.4%
17.4%CA$16.00CA$10.00n/a9
Feb ’25CA$6.21
CA$12.45
+100.5%
15.2%CA$16.00CA$10.00n/a10
Jan ’25CA$6.48
CA$13.50
+108.3%
10.0%CA$16.00CA$11.00n/a10
Dec ’24CA$7.55
CA$13.41
+77.6%
9.8%CA$16.00CA$11.00CA$5.7011
Nov ’24CA$9.52
CA$13.39
+40.6%
10.1%CA$16.00CA$10.50CA$5.7811
Oct ’24CA$9.26
CA$13.22
+42.8%
10.6%CA$16.00CA$11.75CA$6.209
Sep ’24CA$8.65
CA$12.32
+42.4%
12.5%CA$16.00CA$9.00CA$6.5311
Aug ’24CA$8.24
CA$12.36
+50.0%
13.5%CA$16.00CA$9.00CA$6.8311
Jul ’24CA$7.04
CA$12.95
+84.0%
11.9%CA$16.00CA$10.00CA$7.0311
Jun ’24CA$7.54
CA$13.05
+73.1%
11.1%CA$16.00CA$11.00CA$7.2910
May ’24CA$8.55
CA$13.63
+59.4%
9.8%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$7.1510
Apr ’24CA$8.79
CA$13.73
+56.1%
10.2%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$7.8310
Mar ’24CA$9.00
CA$13.55
+50.6%
13.6%CA$16.00CA$10.25CA$6.9210
Feb ’24CA$9.60
CA$13.55
+41.1%
13.6%CA$16.00CA$10.25CA$6.2110
Jan ’24CA$9.11
CA$14.67
+61.0%
8.4%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$6.489
Dec ’23CA$9.80
CA$14.56
+48.5%
9.6%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$7.559

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 01:08
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Surge Energy Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Trevor ReynoldsAcumen Capital Finance Partners Limited
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets