Tidewater Renewables Ltd.

TSX:LCFS Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$67.2m

Tidewater Renewables Valuation

Is LCFS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LCFS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LCFS (CA$1.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$17.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LCFS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LCFS?

Key metric: As LCFS is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LCFS. This is calculated by dividing LCFS's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LCFS's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.1x
SalesCA$323.10m
Market CapCA$67.20m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LCFS's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LCFS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
PEA Pieridae Energy
0.3xn/aCA$65.3m
ZEFI Zefiro Methane
1xn/aCA$45.4m
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1x18.8%CA$87.9m
FORZ Forza Petroleum
0.9xn/aCA$90.9m
LCFS Tidewater Renewables
0.1x-17.2%CA$67.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LCFS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LCFS's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.0x2.1%
LCFS Tidewater Renewables
 0.1x-17.2%US$47.80m
PKI Parkland
0.2x2.2%US$4.05b
SES Secure Energy Services
0.4x-56.0%US$2.80b
LCFS 0.1xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies18PS01.63.24.86.48+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.0x5.3%
LCFS Tidewater Renewables
 0.1x111.9%US$47.80m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LCFS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LCFS's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LCFS PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LCFS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LCFS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$1.15
CA$4.25
+269.6%
19.7%CA$5.00CA$3.00n/a5
Nov ’25CA$1.95
CA$4.13
+111.5%
19.7%CA$5.00CA$3.00n/a6
Oct ’25CA$1.95
CA$4.88
+150.0%
31.0%CA$8.00CA$3.50n/a6
Sep ’25CA$2.47
CA$6.18
+150.1%
56.4%CA$14.00CA$3.50n/a7
Aug ’25CA$8.48
CA$12.68
+49.5%
8.9%CA$14.00CA$11.00n/a7
Jul ’25CA$7.39
CA$12.68
+71.6%
8.9%CA$14.00CA$11.00n/a7
Jun ’25CA$7.60
CA$12.22
+60.8%
13.2%CA$14.00CA$9.00n/a8
May ’25CA$7.31
CA$12.00
+64.2%
14.6%CA$15.00CA$9.00n/a8
Apr ’25CA$7.59
CA$12.13
+59.7%
12.8%CA$15.00CA$10.00n/a8
Mar ’25CA$6.10
CA$13.66
+123.9%
13.3%CA$15.75CA$10.00n/a8
Feb ’25CA$7.19
CA$13.66
+89.9%
13.3%CA$15.75CA$10.00n/a8
Jan ’25CA$8.07
CA$14.78
+83.2%
12.8%CA$16.50CA$10.00n/a8
Dec ’24CA$7.53
CA$14.78
+96.3%
12.8%CA$16.50CA$10.00n/a8
Nov ’24CA$7.00
CA$14.88
+112.5%
13.5%CA$16.50CA$10.00CA$1.958
Oct ’24CA$8.30
CA$15.19
+83.1%
11.7%CA$17.50CA$10.75CA$1.959
Sep ’24CA$8.50
CA$15.19
+78.8%
11.7%CA$17.50CA$10.75CA$2.479
Aug ’24CA$8.46
CA$15.78
+86.6%
13.3%CA$20.00CA$11.25CA$8.4810
Jul ’24CA$8.42
CA$15.83
+87.9%
13.2%CA$20.00CA$11.25CA$7.3910
Jun ’24CA$6.90
CA$15.93
+130.8%
13.0%CA$20.00CA$11.25CA$7.6010
May ’24CA$8.55
CA$16.23
+89.8%
13.2%CA$20.00CA$11.25CA$7.3110
Apr ’24CA$8.37
CA$16.28
+94.4%
12.8%CA$20.00CA$11.50CA$7.5910
Mar ’24CA$10.96
CA$18.61
+69.8%
6.4%CA$20.00CA$16.00CA$6.109
Feb ’24CA$11.44
CA$18.67
+63.2%
7.0%CA$20.00CA$16.00CA$7.199
Jan ’24CA$11.51
CA$18.72
+62.7%
7.1%CA$20.00CA$16.00CA$8.079
Dec ’23CA$12.48
CA$18.72
+50.0%
7.1%CA$20.00CA$16.00CA$7.539
Nov ’23CA$9.75
CA$20.00
+105.1%
9.1%CA$24.00CA$17.75CA$7.0010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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