Stock Analysis

Is NFI Group (TSE:NFI) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that NFI Group Inc. (TSE:NFI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for NFI Group

What Is NFI Group's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that NFI Group had debt of US$842.7m at the end of January 2022, a reduction from US$1.16b over a year. However, it does have US$77.3m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$765.4m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:NFI Debt to Equity History April 20th 2022

A Look At NFI Group's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that NFI Group had liabilities of US$604.6m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.12b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$77.3m in cash and US$417.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.23b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$952.9m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine NFI Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Over 12 months, NFI Group made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$2.3b, which is a fall of 2.8%. We would much prefer see growth.

Caveat Emptor

Importantly, NFI Group had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at US$23m. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. It would need to improve its operations quickly for us to be interested in it. For example, we would not want to see a repeat of last year's loss of US$14m. And until that time we think this is a risky stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for NFI Group (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster

The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.

Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts

Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if NFI Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSX:NFI

NFI Group

Manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

Undervalued with reasonable growth potential.

Weekly Picks

WO
MGPI logo
woodworthfund on MGP Ingredients ·

THE KINGDOM OF BROWN GOODS: WHY MGPI IS BEING CRUSHED BY INVENTORY & PRIMED FOR RESURRECTION

Fair Value:US$4035.0% undervalued
26 users have followed this narrative
4 users have commented on this narrative
8 users have liked this narrative
DO
Double_Bubbler
EVTL logo
Double_Bubbler on Vertical Aerospace ·

Why Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL) is Worth Possibly Over 13x its Current Price

Fair Value:US$6090.4% undervalued
25 users have followed this narrative
3 users have commented on this narrative
18 users have liked this narrative
TI
TickerTickle
ORCL logo
TickerTickle on Oracle ·

The Quiet Giant That Became AI’s Power Grid

Fair Value:US$389.8151.3% undervalued
48 users have followed this narrative
4 users have commented on this narrative
9 users have liked this narrative

Updated Narratives

GA
BUKS logo
GaryB on Butler National ·

Butler National (Buks) outperforms.

Fair Value:US$3.4419.8% undervalued
1 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
OS
oscargarcia
AVGO logo
oscargarcia on Broadcom ·

A tech powerhouse quietly powering the world’s AI infrastructure.

Fair Value:US$48025.0% undervalued
15 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
AB
AbraxasAether
AJBU logo
AbraxasAether on Keppel DC REIT ·

Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU) is a resilient gem in the data center space.

Fair Value:S$2.613.5% undervalued
2 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Popular Narratives

TH
TheWallstreetKing
MVIS logo
TheWallstreetKing on MicroVision ·

MicroVision will explode future revenue by 380.37% with a vision towards success

Fair Value:US$6098.4% undervalued
120 users have followed this narrative
11 users have commented on this narrative
22 users have liked this narrative
RO
RockeTeller
SCZ logo
RockeTeller on Santacruz Silver Mining ·

Crazy Undervalued 42 Baggers Silver Play (Active & Running Mine)

Fair Value:CA$8683.7% undervalued
78 users have followed this narrative
8 users have commented on this narrative
21 users have liked this narrative
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
NVDA logo
AnalystConsensusTarget on NVIDIA ·

NVDA: Expanding AI Demand Will Drive Major Data Center Investments Through 2026

Fair Value:US$250.3930.1% undervalued
966 users have followed this narrative
6 users have commented on this narrative
25 users have liked this narrative