Stock Analysis

Earnings Beat: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

TSX:CM
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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSE:CM) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.8% to hit CA$5.5b. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) CA$4.03, which was a notable 12% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

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TSX:CM Earnings and Revenue Growth March 1st 2022

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce from eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$22.0b in 2022 which, if met, would be a modest 7.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 4.9% to CA$15.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$21.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$13.89 in 2022. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of CA$173, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce at CA$185 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$149. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$173, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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Find out whether Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.