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Magna International (TSE:MG) investors are sitting on a loss of 25% if they invested three years ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Magna International Inc. (TSE:MG) shareholders, since the share price is down 33% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 20%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 26% lower in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 12% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Magna International saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 11% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 12% per year. So it seems that investor expectations of the company are staying pretty steady, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into Magna International's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Magna International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Magna International's TSR for the last 3 years was -25%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 16% in the last year, Magna International shareholders lost 23% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Magna International .
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:MG
Magna International
Manufactures and supplies vehicle engineering, contract, and automotive space.
Excellent balance sheet established dividend payer.
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