Can Mixed Fundamentals Have A Negative Impact on Magna International Inc. (TSE:MG) Current Share Price Momentum?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 13, 2020
TSX:MG
Source: Shutterstock

Magna International's (TSE:MG) stock is up by a considerable 22% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on Magna International's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Magna International

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Magna International is:

3.6% = US$372m ÷ US$10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every CA$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CA$0.04 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Magna International's Earnings Growth And 3.6% ROE

At first glance, Magna International's ROE doesn't look very promising. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 10%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. For this reason, Magna International's five year net income decline of 11% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

Next, when we compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 7.9% in the same period, we still found Magna International's performance to be quite bleak, because the company has been shrinking its earnings faster than the industry.

past-earnings-growth
TSX:MG Past Earnings Growth December 14th 2020

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is MG worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether MG is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Magna International Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Magna International's low three-year median payout ratio of 20% (implying that it retains the remaining 80% of its profits) comes as a surprise when you pair it with the shrinking earnings. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Additionally, Magna International has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 23%. However, Magna International's ROE is predicted to rise to 18% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Magna International. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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