Some Gafisa S.A. (BVMF:GFSA3) Shareholders Look For Exit As Shares Take 25% Pounding

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Gafisa S.A. (BVMF:GFSA3) shares are down a considerable 25% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 40% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Gafisa's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Brazil's Consumer Durables industry is similar at about 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Gafisa

How Has Gafisa Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Gafisa over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Gafisa's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Gafisa would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's top line. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 8.4% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Gafisa's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Gafisa's P/S Mean For Investors?

Following Gafisa's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Gafisa's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Gafisa has 3 warning signs (and 2 which don't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.