Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies GPS Participações e Empreendimentos S.A. (BVMF:GGPS3) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is GPS Participações e Empreendimentos's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2025 GPS Participações e Empreendimentos had R$5.07b of debt, an increase on R$2.92b, over one year. However, it does have R$3.09b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R$1.98b.
How Healthy Is GPS Participações e Empreendimentos' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that GPS Participações e Empreendimentos had liabilities of R$3.28b falling due within a year, and liabilities of R$7.52b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had R$3.09b in cash and R$4.10b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total R$3.61b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
GPS Participações e Empreendimentos has a market capitalization of R$11.1b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
Check out our latest analysis for GPS Participações e Empreendimentos
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.2 and interest cover of 3.6 times, it seems to us that GPS Participações e Empreendimentos is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. If GPS Participações e Empreendimentos can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 15% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if GPS Participações e Empreendimentos can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, GPS Participações e Empreendimentos recorded free cash flow of 34% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Both GPS Participações e Empreendimentos's ability to to grow its EBIT and its net debt to EBITDA gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. On the other hand, its interest cover makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about GPS Participações e Empreendimentos's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for GPS Participações e Empreendimentos you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.