Tupy S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Tupy S.A. (BVMF:TUPY3), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with R$2.8b revenue coming in 5.9% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.35 missed the mark badly, arriving some 66% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tupy

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tupy's seven analysts is for revenues of R$12.4b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 89% to R$4.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$12.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.49 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at R$31.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tupy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$39.00 and the most bearish at R$22.50 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tupy shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Tupy's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tupy is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$31.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tupy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tupy you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.