New Risk • Apr 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Bulgarian stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.8% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (€83.7m market cap, or US$96.7m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21% After last week's 21% share price gain to €3.72, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 18.1x. Average trailing P/E is 16x in the Construction industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 129% over the past three years. New Risk • Feb 11
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 2.6% Last year net profit margin: 5.0% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.6% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (€74.5m market cap, or US$88.7m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €3.48, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 6.8x. Average trailing P/E is 15x in the Construction industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 115% over the past three years. New Risk • Dec 07
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Market cap is less than US$100m (лв130.7m market cap, or US$77.8m). Reported Earnings • Dec 04
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: лв0.32 (vs лв0.27 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: лв0.32 (up from лв0.27 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: лв123.5m (down 25% from 3Q 2024). Net income: лв7.71m (up 20% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from 3.9% in 3Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Oct 16
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Bulgarian stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (5.3% average weekly change). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Market cap is less than US$100m (лв135.5m market cap, or US$80.7m). New Risk • Sep 11
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (лв137.9m market cap, or US$82.4m). Declared Dividend • Jul 02
Dividend increased to лв0.40 Dividend of лв0.40 is 60% higher than last year. Ex-date: 11th July 2025 Payment date: 29th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 6.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 12% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Jun 08
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.8% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (37% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Reported Earnings • Jun 04
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: лв0.16 (vs лв0.20 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: лв0.16 (down from лв0.20 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: лв103.6m (down 6.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: лв3.83m (down 19% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 4.3% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 76% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 02
Trace Group Hold PLC, Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2025 Trace Group Hold PLC, Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2025, at 11:00 FLE Standard Time. Location: sofia at 96 prof. tsvetan lazarov blvd., entrance b, fl. 12, Bulgaria Announcement • Jan 15
Trace Group Hold PLC to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Trace Group Hold PLC announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results at 4:00 PM, E. Europe Standard Time on Oct 30, 2025 Reported Earnings • Dec 01
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: лв0.27 (vs лв0.58 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: лв0.27 (down from лв0.58 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: лв168.0m (up 55% from 3Q 2023). Net income: лв6.44m (down 55% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 13% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 05
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to лв6.00, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 6.2x. Average trailing P/E is 13x in the Construction industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 92% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: лв0.21 (vs лв0.089 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: лв0.21 (up from лв0.089 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: лв171.8m (up 80% from 2Q 2023). Net income: лв5.29m (up 144% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from 2.3% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 63% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jul 04
Dividend increased to лв0.25 Dividend of лв0.25 is 56% higher than last year. Ex-date: 11th July 2024 Payment date: 26th August 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (18% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 2.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 13% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 04
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: лв0.19 (vs лв0.024 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: лв0.19 (up from лв0.024 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: лв111.5m (up 101% from 1Q 2023). Net income: лв4.71m (up лв4.12m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 1.1% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: лв0.77 (vs лв0.008 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: лв0.77 (up from лв0.008 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: лв397.8m (up 89% from FY 2022). Net income: лв18.7m (up лв18.9m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.7% (up from net loss in FY 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to лв4.80, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.5x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Construction industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 55% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: лв0.084 (vs лв0.14 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: лв0.084 (up from лв0.14 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: лв98.2m (up 119% from 2Q 2022). Net income: лв2.16m (up лв5.51m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jul 08
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 177% The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 4.2% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shares are highly illiquid. Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 177% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 20% per year over the past 5 years. High level of non-cash earnings (37% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (лв91.9m market cap, or US$51.6m). Reported Earnings • Jun 02
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: лв0.02 (vs лв0.074 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: лв0.02 (up from лв0.074 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: лв56.7m (up 185% from 1Q 2022). Net income: лв585.0k (up лв2.39m from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Dec 02
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: лв0.034 (vs лв0.23 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: лв0.034 (down from лв0.23 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: лв52.3m (up 31% from 3Q 2021). Net income: лв811.0k (down 85% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 14% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 38% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Sep 02
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: лв0.14 loss per share (vs лв0.11 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: лв0.14 loss per share (down from лв0.11 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: лв46.3m (up 37% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: лв3.35m (loss widened 27% from 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Jun 02
First quarter 2022 earnings released: лв0.07 loss per share (vs лв0.023 loss in 1Q 2021) First quarter 2022 results: лв0.07 loss per share (down from лв0.023 loss in 1Q 2021). Revenue: лв20.7m (flat on 1Q 2021). Net loss: лв1.80m (loss widened 222% from 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 04
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: лв0.40 (down from лв0.48 in FY 2020). Revenue: лв166.3m (down 24% from FY 2020). Net income: лв9.74m (down 16% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 5.9% (up from 5.3% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 05
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to лв4.44, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 22.3x. Average trailing P/E is 17x in the Construction industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Dec 04
Third quarter 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2021 results: EPS: лв0.21 (down from лв0.30 in 3Q 2020). Revenue: лв51.0m (down 29% from 3Q 2020). Net income: лв5.43m (down 26% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 11% (in line with 3Q 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 06
Upcoming dividend of лв0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 July 2021. Payment date: 23 August 2021. Trailing yield: 5.1%. Within top quartile of Bulgarian dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.3%). Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS лв0.48 (vs лв0.76 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: лв219.7m (down 30% from FY 2019). Net income: лв11.6m (down 37% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.3% (down from 5.9% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 22
New 90-day high: лв3.68 The company is up 5.0% from its price of лв3.50 on 22 October 2020. The Bulgarian market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Construction industry, which is up 14% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 04
New 90-day low: лв3.24 The company is down 4.0% from its price of лв3.38 on 05 October 2020. The Bulgarian market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Construction industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Dec 04
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS лв0.30 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: лв71.7m (down 14% from 3Q 2019). Net income: лв7.38m (up 72% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 10% (up from 5.2% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 52% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Aug 14
Nikolay Mihaylov cancelled the acquisition of an additional 9.99% stake in Trace Group Hold PLC (BUL:T57). Nikolay Mihaylov is launching a buyout bid to acquire an additional 9.99% stake in Trace Group Hold PLC (BUL:T57) for BGN 9.2 million on July 14, 2020. Under the transaction, Nikolay Mihaylov will buy 2.4 million shares at a price of BGN 3.8 per share. At the time of buyout offer, Mihaylov controlled direct stake of 67.23% interest in Trace Group and his direct and indirect interest in Trace Group Hold exceeded 90%. Mihaylov will use his own funds to finance the buyout offer.
Nikolay Mihaylov cancelled the acquisition of an additional 9.99% stake in Trace Group Hold PLC (BUL:T57) on August 12, 2020. The bid was suspended by the Financial Supervision Commission. 
