Some Unifiedpost Group SA (EBR:UPG) Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Unifiedpost Group SA (EBR:UPG), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. The stock price has risen 5.1% to €3.52 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from dual analysts covering Unifiedpost Group is for revenues of €155m in 2024, implying a definite 19% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 66% to €0.73 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €204m and losses of €0.64 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for Unifiedpost Group

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 19% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.0% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Unifiedpost Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After a cut like that, investors could be forgiven for thinking analysts are a lot more bearish on Unifiedpost Group, and a few readers might choose to steer clear of the stock.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Unifiedpost Group's business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 2 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.