Assessing AB InBev (ENXTBR:ABI) Valuation After a Year of Mixed Share Performance

Anheuser-Busch InBev (ENXTBR:ABI): Investors Eye Stock After Year of Mixed Returns

Even without a headline-grabbing catalyst, Anheuser-Busch InBev (ENXTBR:ABI) continues to catch the attention of investors, especially those evaluating what the latest share price moves might signal. While there is no dramatic event driving the stock this week, the company’s recent price behavior raises meaningful questions about future value and market expectations. For those monitoring the food and beverage sector, it is an opportunity to check whether the market’s current stance on ABI reflects potential or signals something more cautionary.

Taking a step back, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s performance over the past year has been mixed. The stock is up around 4% year-to-date but down roughly 12% over the last twelve months, indicating momentum has faded as the year has progressed. Occasionally positive news on business fundamentals, with annual revenue and net income both showing growth, has not translated into steady stock gains. Instead, investors have seen more volatility and a lack of a clear trend.

This raises the question of whether Anheuser-Busch InBev is currently undervalued or if the market is already incorporating the company’s future growth prospects into its valuation.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.7% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Anheuser-Busch InBev is currently undervalued by a significant margin, with fair value estimated notably above the recent share price. The prevailing view combines consensus analyst targets and future business drivers to justify this assessment.

"AB InBev is leveraging the growing consumption power of the global middle class, especially in emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Demographic shifts and urbanization are expanding the addressable market for premium and mainstream beer, a catalyst expected to drive long-term revenue growth as volume potential recovers from short-term setbacks in markets like Brazil and China."

What’s the secret to ABI’s bullish fair value? It is not just about market size or new product trends. The real story is powered by projections that combine premium expansion, targeted margin improvements, and a future earnings forecast that will surprise many skeptics. Curious which assumptions push this valuation significantly higher? The key number crunching behind this call is waiting to be discovered.

Result: Fair Value of €67.44 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing volume declines in key markets and shifting consumer preferences toward non-alcoholic alternatives could present challenges for optimism regarding Anheuser-Busch InBev’s future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Anheuser-Busch InBev narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Say?

Looking beyond analyst targets, our SWS DCF model offers a different perspective and also suggests Anheuser-Busch InBev is undervalued. Can this second method, which focuses on long-term cash flows, strengthen the bullish case or does it overlook key short-term risks?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Anheuser-Busch InBev for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Anheuser-Busch InBev Narrative

For those who prefer independent analysis or want to test different assumptions, you can easily put together your own view using the available data. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Anheuser-Busch InBev research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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