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- ENXTBR:FLUX
As Fluxys Belgium (EBR:FLUX) rallies 6.9% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's three-year earnings growth
Fluxys Belgium SA (EBR:FLUX) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 47% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.
While the stock has risen 6.9% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
Check out our latest analysis for Fluxys Belgium
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Fluxys Belgium actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.9% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. It's good to see that Fluxys Belgium has increased its revenue over the last three years. But it's not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Fluxys Belgium's TSR for the last 3 years was -41%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Fluxys Belgium shareholders are down 20% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 5.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Fluxys Belgium better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Fluxys Belgium is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Belgian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTBR:FLUX
Fluxys Belgium
An infrastructure company, engages in transmission and storage of natural gas in Belgium.
Solid track record established dividend payer.