Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In Origin Energy Limited's (ASX:ORG) Stock?

Most readers would already be aware that Origin Energy's (ASX:ORG) stock increased significantly by 19% over the past three months. Given that the market rewards strong financials in the long-term, we wonder if that is the case in this instance. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Origin Energy's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Origin Energy is:

14% = AU$1.4b ÷ AU$10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.14 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Origin Energy

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Origin Energy's Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To begin with, Origin Energy seems to have a respectable ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.5% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Probably as a result of this, Origin Energy was able to see an impressive net income growth of 36% over the last five years. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then compared Origin Energy's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 20% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is ORG fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Origin Energy Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Origin Energy's significant three-year median payout ratio of 53% (where it is retaining only 47% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Moreover, Origin Energy is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 91% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with Origin Energy's performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.