Origin Energy Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ORG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ORG (A$10.71) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$13.99)

Is ORG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORG (A$10.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$13.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORG?

Key metric: As ORG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ORG. This is calculated by dividing ORG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ORG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.2x
Earnings	AU$1.40b
Market Cap	AU$18.21b

ORG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.7x
PEG Ratio	-3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.2x
APA APA Group	9.5x	-25.4%	AU$9.2b
AGL AGL Energy	10.4x	-2.3%	AU$7.3b
PNW Pinnacle West Capital	16.9x	5.8%	US$10.4b
EMA Emera	23.9x	14.2%	CA$14.9b
ORG Origin Energy	13.2x	-4.4%	AU$18.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

9 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

9 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.2x
Fair PE Ratio	15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$10.71	AU$10.27 -4.1%	7.8%	AU$11.75	AU$8.86	n/a	11
Nov ’25	AU$9.72	AU$10.27 +5.6%	7.8%	AU$11.75	AU$8.86	n/a	11
Oct ’25	AU$10.19	AU$10.42 +2.2%	8.2%	AU$11.65	AU$8.86	n/a	11
Sep ’25	AU$9.96	AU$10.18 +2.2%	10.7%	AU$11.70	AU$7.85	n/a	12
Aug ’25	AU$10.54	AU$10.62 +0.8%	10.5%	AU$12.10	AU$7.85	n/a	12
Jul ’25	AU$10.93	AU$10.44 -4.5%	11.1%	AU$12.10	AU$7.85	n/a	11
Jun ’25	AU$10.19	AU$9.94 -2.4%	9.0%	AU$11.00	AU$7.85	n/a	10
May ’25	AU$9.70	AU$9.65 -0.6%	8.3%	AU$10.55	AU$7.85	n/a	10
Apr ’25	AU$9.20	AU$9.37 +1.8%	7.6%	AU$10.50	AU$7.85	n/a	10
Mar ’25	AU$9.01	AU$9.21 +2.2%	8.6%	AU$10.50	AU$7.85	n/a	10
Feb ’25	AU$8.42	AU$9.27 +10.1%	7.5%	AU$10.50	AU$8.07	n/a	7
Jan ’25	AU$8.47	AU$9.03 +6.6%	8.3%	AU$10.50	AU$8.25	n/a	6
Dec ’24	AU$8.18	AU$9.05 +10.7%	5.6%	AU$9.75	AU$8.25	n/a	5
Nov ’24	AU$9.07	AU$9.16 +1.0%	3.9%	AU$9.75	AU$8.80	AU$9.72	5
Oct ’24	AU$8.78	AU$8.92 +1.6%	3.1%	AU$9.39	AU$8.55	AU$10.19	5
Sep ’24	AU$8.72	AU$8.85 +1.4%	1.9%	AU$9.00	AU$8.55	AU$9.96	5
Aug ’24	AU$8.49	AU$8.79 +3.5%	2.1%	AU$9.00	AU$8.48	AU$10.54	5
Jul ’24	AU$8.41	AU$8.36 -0.7%	11.8%	AU$9.00	AU$6.18	AU$10.93	6
Jun ’24	AU$8.36	AU$8.37 +0.08%	11.8%	AU$9.00	AU$6.18	AU$10.19	6
May ’24	AU$8.38	AU$8.43 +0.6%	11.1%	AU$9.00	AU$6.18	AU$9.70	7
Apr ’24	AU$8.29	AU$8.10 -2.3%	11.3%	AU$9.00	AU$6.18	AU$9.20	7
Mar ’24	AU$8.02	AU$7.71 -3.8%	11.7%	AU$9.00	AU$6.18	AU$9.01	8
Feb ’24	AU$7.41	AU$8.14 +9.8%	8.4%	AU$9.00	AU$7.19	AU$8.42	8
Jan ’24	AU$7.72	AU$7.81 +1.2%	12.4%	AU$9.00	AU$6.35	AU$8.47	8
Dec ’23	AU$7.95	AU$7.40 -6.9%	14.2%	AU$9.00	AU$6.00	AU$8.18	8
Nov ’23	AU$5.79	AU$6.51 +12.5%	10.3%	AU$7.74	AU$5.44	AU$9.07	13

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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