We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Origin Energy Valuation

Is ORG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ORG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-34.1x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ORG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

ORG PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for ORG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.4x
APA APA Group
4.2x3.0%AU$11.4b
AGL AGL Energy
0.3x-0.2%AU$4.6b
600995 Yunnan Wenshan Electric PowerLtd
16.9x12.0%CN¥38.5b
2638 HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments
4.3x3.5%HK$47.5b
ORG Origin Energy
0.6x2.0%AU$9.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (6.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (0.8x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORG (A$5.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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