Origin Energy Limited

ASX:ORG Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$17.6b

Origin Energy Valuation

Is ORG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$13.91
Fair Value
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ORG (A$10.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$13.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORG?

Key metric: As ORG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ORG. This is calculated by dividing ORG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ORG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.5x
EarningsAU$1.40b
Market CapAU$17.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.5x
APA APA Group
8.8x-23.4%AU$8.6b
AGL AGL Energy
11.1x-1.7%AU$7.7b
EMA Emera
26x13.0%CA$16.6b
PNW Pinnacle West Capital
16.1x5.8%US$9.9b
ORG Origin Energy
12.5x-5.2%AU$17.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ORG 12.5xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies32PE0816243240+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.5x
Fair PE Ratio15.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$10.19
AU$10.62
+4.2%
9.3%AU$12.00AU$8.97n/a11
Jan ’26AU$10.90
AU$10.27
-5.8%
7.8%AU$11.75AU$8.86n/a11
Dec ’25AU$10.87
AU$10.27
-5.5%
7.8%AU$11.75AU$8.86n/a11
Nov ’25AU$9.72
AU$10.27
+5.6%
7.8%AU$11.75AU$8.86n/a11
Oct ’25AU$10.19
AU$10.42
+2.2%
8.2%AU$11.65AU$8.86n/a11
Sep ’25AU$9.96
AU$10.18
+2.2%
10.7%AU$11.70AU$7.85n/a12
Aug ’25AU$10.54
AU$10.62
+0.8%
10.5%AU$12.10AU$7.85n/a12
Jul ’25AU$10.93
AU$10.44
-4.5%
11.1%AU$12.10AU$7.85n/a11
Jun ’25AU$10.19
AU$9.94
-2.4%
9.0%AU$11.00AU$7.85n/a10
May ’25AU$9.70
AU$9.65
-0.6%
8.3%AU$10.55AU$7.85n/a10
Apr ’25AU$9.20
AU$9.37
+1.8%
7.6%AU$10.50AU$7.85n/a10
Mar ’25AU$9.01
AU$9.21
+2.2%
8.6%AU$10.50AU$7.85n/a10
Feb ’25AU$8.42
AU$9.27
+10.1%
7.5%AU$10.50AU$8.07AU$10.457
Jan ’25AU$8.47
AU$9.03
+6.6%
8.3%AU$10.50AU$8.25AU$10.906
Dec ’24AU$8.18
AU$9.05
+10.7%
5.6%AU$9.75AU$8.25AU$10.875
Nov ’24AU$9.07
AU$9.16
+1.0%
3.9%AU$9.75AU$8.80AU$9.725
Oct ’24AU$8.78
AU$8.92
+1.6%
3.1%AU$9.39AU$8.55AU$10.195
Sep ’24AU$8.72
AU$8.85
+1.4%
1.9%AU$9.00AU$8.55AU$9.965
Aug ’24AU$8.49
AU$8.79
+3.5%
2.1%AU$9.00AU$8.48AU$10.545
Jul ’24AU$8.41
AU$8.36
-0.7%
11.8%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$10.936
Jun ’24AU$8.36
AU$8.37
+0.08%
11.8%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$10.196
May ’24AU$8.38
AU$8.43
+0.6%
11.1%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$9.707
Apr ’24AU$8.29
AU$8.10
-2.3%
11.3%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$9.207
Mar ’24AU$8.02
AU$7.71
-3.8%
11.7%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$9.018
Feb ’24AU$7.41
AU$8.14
+9.8%
8.4%AU$9.00AU$7.19AU$8.428
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
AU$10.62
Fair Value
4.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/05 13:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/05 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Origin Energy Limited is covered by 26 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Reinhardt WaltBofA Global Research