AGL Energy's (ASX:AGL) Dividend Is Being Reduced To AU$0.34

AGL Energy Limited's (ASX:AGL) dividend is being reduced to AU$0.34 on the 29th of September. However, the dividend yield of 10% is still a decent boost to shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for AGL Energy

AGL Energy's Distributions May Be Difficult To Sustain

If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. While AGL Energy is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. We generally think that cash flow is more important than accounting measures of profit, so we are fairly comfortable with the dividend at this level.

Looking forward, earnings per share could 28.4% over the next year if the trend of the last few years can't be broken. This means that the company will be unprofitable, but cash flows are more important when considering the dividend and as the current cash payout ratio is pretty healthy, we don't think there is too much reason to worry.

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The first annual payment during the last 10 years was AU$0.59 in 2011, and the most recent fiscal year payment was AU$0.65. Its dividends have grown at less than 1% per annum over this time frame. Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.

The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential

Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. AGL Energy's EPS has fallen by approximately 28% per year during the past five years. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in.

AGL Energy's Dividend Doesn't Look Sustainable

Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. For instance, we've picked out 3 warning signs for AGL Energy that investors should take into consideration. We have also put together a list of global stocks with a solid dividend.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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