Revenues Not Telling The Story For Transurban Group (ASX:TCL)

Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 10.5x may look like a poor investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Infrastructure industry in Australia have P/S ratios below 2.1x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

View our latest analysis for Transurban Group

How Transurban Group Has Been Performing

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Transurban Group's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Transurban Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Transurban Group would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 43% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its uninspiring short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been great for the company, but investors will want to ask why it has slowed to such an extent.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 1.6% per annum as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 10% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it concerning that Transurban Group is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What Does Transurban Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It comes as a surprise to see Transurban Group trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. The weakness in the company's revenue estimate doesn't bode well for the elevated P/S, which could take a fall if the revenue sentiment doesn't improve. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Transurban Group.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.