Stock Analysis

Analysts Just Slashed Their Centuria Capital Group (ASX:CNI) EPS Numbers

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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Centuria Capital Group (ASX:CNI), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from eight analysts covering Centuria Capital Group is for revenues of AU$252m in 2024, implying a sizeable 32% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 191% to AU$0.12. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$281m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.14 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for Centuria Capital Group

ASX:CNI Earnings and Revenue Growth August 22nd 2023

The consensus price target fell 9.8% to AU$1.73, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Centuria Capital Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 32% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 25% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 6.3% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Centuria Capital Group, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our aggregation of analyst estimates suggests that Centuria Capital Group revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Centuria Capital Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Centuria Capital Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.