The Aroa Biosurgery Limited (ASX:ARX) Interim Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Aroa Biosurgery Limited (ASX:ARX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 8.7% to AU$0.69. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aroa Biosurgery

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aroa Biosurgery's five analysts is for revenues of NZ$84.4m in 2025. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 88% to NZ$0.0026. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of NZ$85.4m and NZ$0.002 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of AU$0.95, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aroa Biosurgery at AU$1.06 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$0.76. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Aroa Biosurgery is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.4% per year. So although Aroa Biosurgery is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Aroa Biosurgery. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Aroa Biosurgery analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Aroa Biosurgery's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.