Incitec Pivot Limited

CHIA:IPL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$5.5b

Incitec Pivot Valuation

Is IPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IPL (A$2.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IPL?

Key metric: As IPL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for IPL. This is calculated by dividing IPL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is IPL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1x
SalesAU$5.34b
Market CapAU$5.52b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does IPL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for IPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.5x
ORI Orica
1.1x4.1%AU$8.2b
LYC Lynas Rare Earths
12.8x32.2%AU$5.9b
SFR Sandfire Resources
2.8x8.2%AU$4.2b
MIN Mineral Resources
1.2x6.4%AU$6.4b
IPL Incitec Pivot
1x0.8%AU$5.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: IPL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (4.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does IPL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Chemicals Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.4.8x10.4%
IPL Incitec Pivot
 1x0.8%US$3.44b
ORI Orica
1.1x4.1%US$5.09b
NUF Nufarm
0.4x7.6%US$853.51m
IPL 1.0xIndustry Avg. 4.8xNo. of Companies14PS020406080100+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.4.8x32.6%
IPL Incitec Pivot
 1x61.9%US$3.44b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: IPL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the Australian Chemicals industry average (4.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IPL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IPL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1x
Fair PS Ratio1.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: IPL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.94
AU$3.31
+12.7%
7.8%AU$3.90AU$2.90n/a13
Dec ’25AU$3.20
AU$3.30
+3.2%
7.9%AU$3.90AU$2.90n/a13
Nov ’25AU$2.97
AU$3.23
+8.7%
6.9%AU$3.62AU$2.91n/a14
Oct ’25AU$3.06
AU$3.20
+4.6%
6.2%AU$3.65AU$2.91n/a14
Sep ’25AU$3.03
AU$3.14
+3.5%
4.8%AU$3.40AU$2.91n/a14
Aug ’25AU$2.97
AU$3.15
+6.2%
5.1%AU$3.40AU$2.91n/a14
Jul ’25AU$2.89
AU$3.21
+11.1%
6.0%AU$3.50AU$2.82n/a12
Jun ’25AU$2.95
AU$3.21
+8.6%
6.0%AU$3.50AU$2.82n/a12
May ’25AU$2.80
AU$3.06
+9.4%
7.4%AU$3.37AU$2.55n/a14
Apr ’25AU$2.88
AU$3.08
+7.2%
7.6%AU$3.37AU$2.55n/a14
Mar ’25AU$2.71
AU$3.08
+13.8%
7.6%AU$3.37AU$2.55n/a14
Feb ’25AU$2.67
AU$3.13
+17.4%
8.7%AU$3.70AU$2.55n/a14
Jan ’25AU$2.85
AU$3.17
+11.4%
8.1%AU$3.70AU$2.70n/a14
Dec ’24AU$2.90
AU$3.19
+9.8%
8.2%AU$3.70AU$2.70AU$3.2012
Nov ’24AU$2.78
AU$3.26
+17.4%
8.7%AU$3.70AU$2.85AU$2.9711
Oct ’24AU$3.14
AU$3.26
+3.9%
8.7%AU$3.70AU$2.85AU$3.0611
Sep ’24AU$3.01
AU$3.31
+9.9%
8.9%AU$3.70AU$2.85AU$3.0311
Aug ’24AU$3.04
AU$3.27
+7.7%
8.6%AU$3.70AU$2.85AU$2.9710
Jul ’24AU$2.75
AU$3.33
+21.2%
7.4%AU$3.70AU$3.00AU$2.899
Jun ’24AU$2.98
AU$3.48
+16.9%
9.1%AU$4.00AU$3.10AU$2.959
May ’24AU$3.25
AU$3.92
+20.5%
9.8%AU$4.55AU$3.40AU$2.808
Apr ’24AU$3.13
AU$4.00
+27.7%
10.2%AU$4.70AU$3.50AU$2.889
Mar ’24AU$3.44
AU$4.29
+24.7%
11.3%AU$5.05AU$3.50AU$2.7111
Feb ’24AU$3.44
AU$4.31
+25.2%
11.0%AU$5.05AU$3.50AU$2.6711
Jan ’24AU$3.79
AU$4.30
+13.5%
11.1%AU$5.05AU$3.50AU$2.8511
Dec ’23AU$3.99
AU$4.25
+6.5%
11.6%AU$5.05AU$3.50AU$2.9012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 17:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Incitec Pivot Limited is covered by 30 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David Matthew KratochvilAlliance Global Partners
Dennis HulmeAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited