Sandfire Resources Limited

ASX:SFR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.7b

Sandfire Resources Valuation

Is SFR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SFR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SFR (A$10.27) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$15.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SFR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SFR?

Key metric: As SFR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SFR. This is calculated by dividing SFR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SFR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.3x
SalesUS$935.28m
Market CapUS$3.06b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SFR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SFR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
AIS Aeris Resources
0.3x-10.5%AU$179.0m
IGO IGO
4.4x-57.5%AU$3.7b
MIN Mineral Resources
1.2x5.9%AU$6.6b
PRU Perseus Mining
2.3x2.2%AU$3.7b
SFR Sandfire Resources
3.3x8.6%AU$4.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SFR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SFR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

122 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.1x2.6%
SFR Sandfire Resources
 3.3x8.6%US$3.06b
BHP BHP Group
2.4x-4.1%US$132.38b
FMG Fortescue
2x-5.6%US$36.60b
SFR 3.3xIndustry Avg. 61.1xNo. of Companies122PS020406080100+
122 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.1x10.6%
SFR Sandfire Resources
 3.3x40.1%US$3.06b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SFR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (61.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SFR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SFR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.3x
Fair PS Ratio3.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SFR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SFR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$10.27
AU$10.40
+1.2%
9.5%AU$12.00AU$8.00n/a14
Nov ’25AU$10.44
AU$10.33
-1.0%
9.6%AU$12.00AU$8.00n/a14
Oct ’25AU$10.62
AU$9.55
-10.1%
14.9%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Sep ’25AU$8.63
AU$9.51
+10.2%
14.5%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Aug ’25AU$9.09
AU$9.47
+4.2%
14.8%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Jul ’25AU$8.68
AU$9.45
+8.9%
16.4%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Jun ’25AU$9.25
AU$9.34
+1.0%
17.9%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
May ’25AU$9.23
AU$9.02
-2.3%
16.9%AU$11.00AU$5.51n/a16
Apr ’25AU$8.89
AU$7.77
-12.6%
12.9%AU$10.00AU$5.51n/a16
Mar ’25AU$7.60
AU$7.43
-2.3%
10.7%AU$8.50AU$5.51n/a16
Feb ’25AU$7.18
AU$7.45
+3.8%
8.9%AU$8.45AU$6.30n/a15
Jan ’25AU$7.34
AU$6.84
-6.8%
10.7%AU$8.45AU$5.40n/a15
Dec ’24AU$6.20
AU$6.81
+9.9%
11.0%AU$8.45AU$5.40n/a15
Nov ’24AU$6.02
AU$6.81
+13.2%
11.5%AU$8.45AU$5.40AU$10.4415
Oct ’24AU$6.16
AU$6.75
+9.6%
9.6%AU$7.75AU$5.40AU$10.6215
Sep ’24AU$6.83
AU$6.69
-2.1%
9.1%AU$7.75AU$5.40AU$8.6315
Aug ’24AU$6.71
AU$6.71
-0.07%
8.8%AU$7.65AU$5.40AU$9.0915
Jul ’24AU$5.90
AU$6.51
+10.3%
12.5%AU$7.50AU$4.60AU$8.6815
Jun ’24AU$5.65
AU$6.60
+16.8%
13.9%AU$8.04AU$4.70AU$9.2515
May ’24AU$6.38
AU$6.60
+3.5%
13.7%AU$8.12AU$4.70AU$9.2316
Apr ’24AU$6.33
AU$6.12
-3.3%
15.1%AU$7.50AU$4.00AU$8.8916
Mar ’24AU$5.83
AU$5.95
+2.0%
15.8%AU$7.50AU$4.00AU$7.6014
Feb ’24AU$6.48
AU$6.06
-6.4%
16.0%AU$7.70AU$4.30AU$7.1815
Jan ’24AU$5.44
AU$5.44
+0.09%
20.9%AU$7.70AU$3.27AU$7.3415
Dec ’23AU$5.26
AU$5.09
-3.3%
21.6%AU$7.70AU$3.27AU$6.2014
Nov ’23AU$3.62
AU$4.84
+33.8%
21.8%AU$7.70AU$3.20AU$6.0215

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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