Sandfire Resources Limited

ASX:SFR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.4b

Sandfire Resources Valuation

Is SFR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SFR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SFR (A$9.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$16.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SFR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SFR?

Key metric: As SFR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SFR. This is calculated by dividing SFR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SFR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.9x
SalesUS$935.28m
Market CapUS$2.71b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SFR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SFR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
AIS Aeris Resources
0.3x-9.9%AU$169.3m
IGO IGO
4.4x-54.7%AU$3.7b
AR1 Austral Resources Australia
0.8xn/aAU$84.3m
PRU Perseus Mining
2.2x2.5%AU$3.5b
SFR Sandfire Resources
2.9x8.2%AU$4.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SFR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SFR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

124 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.60.6x3.2%
SFR Sandfire Resources
 2.9x8.2%US$2.71b
BHP BHP Group
2.2x-3.1%US$125.44b
FMG Fortescue
1.9x-5.5%US$35.42b
SFR 2.9xIndustry Avg. 60.6xNo. of Companies124PS020406080100+
124 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.60.6x10.5%
SFR Sandfire Resources
 2.9x40.8%US$2.71b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SFR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (60.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SFR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SFR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.9x
Fair PS Ratio3.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SFR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SFR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$9.51
AU$10.50
+10.4%
7.8%AU$12.00AU$9.00n/a15
Dec ’25AU$10.37
AU$10.43
+0.6%
9.3%AU$12.00AU$8.00n/a15
Nov ’25AU$10.44
AU$10.37
-0.6%
9.4%AU$12.00AU$8.00n/a15
Oct ’25AU$10.62
AU$9.55
-10.1%
14.9%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Sep ’25AU$8.63
AU$9.51
+10.2%
14.5%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Aug ’25AU$9.09
AU$9.47
+4.2%
14.8%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Jul ’25AU$8.68
AU$9.45
+8.9%
16.4%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
Jun ’25AU$9.25
AU$9.34
+1.0%
17.9%AU$11.50AU$5.51n/a16
May ’25AU$9.23
AU$9.02
-2.3%
16.9%AU$11.00AU$5.51n/a16
Apr ’25AU$8.89
AU$7.77
-12.6%
12.9%AU$10.00AU$5.51n/a16
Mar ’25AU$7.60
AU$7.43
-2.3%
10.7%AU$8.50AU$5.51n/a16
Feb ’25AU$7.18
AU$7.45
+3.8%
8.9%AU$8.45AU$6.30n/a15
Jan ’25AU$7.34
AU$6.84
-6.8%
10.7%AU$8.45AU$5.40n/a15
Dec ’24AU$6.20
AU$6.81
+9.9%
11.0%AU$8.45AU$5.40AU$10.3715
Nov ’24AU$6.02
AU$6.81
+13.2%
11.5%AU$8.45AU$5.40AU$10.4415
Oct ’24AU$6.16
AU$6.75
+9.6%
9.6%AU$7.75AU$5.40AU$10.6215
Sep ’24AU$6.83
AU$6.69
-2.1%
9.1%AU$7.75AU$5.40AU$8.6315
Aug ’24AU$6.71
AU$6.71
-0.07%
8.8%AU$7.65AU$5.40AU$9.0915
Jul ’24AU$5.90
AU$6.51
+10.3%
12.5%AU$7.50AU$4.60AU$8.6815
Jun ’24AU$5.65
AU$6.60
+16.8%
13.9%AU$8.04AU$4.70AU$9.2515
May ’24AU$6.38
AU$6.60
+3.5%
13.7%AU$8.12AU$4.70AU$9.2316
Apr ’24AU$6.33
AU$6.12
-3.3%
15.1%AU$7.50AU$4.00AU$8.8916
Mar ’24AU$5.83
AU$5.95
+2.0%
15.8%AU$7.50AU$4.00AU$7.6014
Feb ’24AU$6.48
AU$6.06
-6.4%
16.0%AU$7.70AU$4.30AU$7.1815
Jan ’24AU$5.44
AU$5.44
+0.09%
20.9%AU$7.70AU$3.27AU$7.3415
Dec ’23AU$5.26
AU$5.09
-3.3%
21.6%AU$7.70AU$3.27AU$6.2014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 19:16
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Sandfire Resources Limited is covered by 38 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Glyn LawcockBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited