Sandfire Resources Limited

ASX:SFR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.3b

Sandfire Resources Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 3/6

Sandfire Resources's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -10.8%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings growing at 15.2% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 14.1% per year. Sandfire Resources's return on equity is 7.2%, and it has net margins of 10.8%.

Key information

-10.84%

Earnings growth rate

-33.61%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining Industry Growth22.33%
Revenue growth rate14.13%
Return on equity7.21%
Net Margin10.77%
Next Earnings Update23 Jul 2026

Recent past performance updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 10

SFR: Free Cash Flow Strength And Commodity Decks Will Shape Fair Outlook

Analysts have made a small upward revision to Sandfire Resources' price target, reflecting updated cash flow expectations and refreshed commodity price assumptions. Recent Street research includes moves from A$17.50 to A$18 and from A$19.50 to A$21.
Narrative Update • Apr 24

SFR: Free Cash Flow And Commodity Assumptions Will Guide Fair Outcome

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Sandfire Resources by A$0.17 to A$18.81, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, margins and future P/E, following recent research that includes higher Street price targets in the A$18 to A$21 range and continued focus on free cash flow and revised commodity price decks. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to strong free cash flow as a key support for the current valuation, arguing that consistent cash generation offers flexibility for funding projects or strengthening the balance sheet.
Narrative Update • Apr 09

SFR: Free Cash Flow Strength And 2026 Guidance Will Shape Fair Outcome

Analysts have trimmed the blended fair value estimate for Sandfire Resources by about A$0.10 to A$18.98. Recent Street research price target moves to A$18 and A$21 highlight a mix of updated commodity assumptions and views on cash flow strength.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

SFR: Free Cash Flow And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Repricing

Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Sandfire Resources slightly to A$19.08 from A$18.99, citing updated commodity price assumptions and recent price target moves around A$18 to A$21, which are supported by free cash flow and valuation views. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates offer a mixed but constructive view on Sandfire Resources, with most commentary focused on refreshed commodity price assumptions, free cash flow support and where the shares sit relative to updated price targets.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

SFR: Free Cash Flow And 2026 Guidance Will Support Upside Repricing

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Sandfire Resources slightly higher to about A$19.00 per share, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as recent price target increases to A$18 and A$21 that highlight ongoing focus on free cash flow and revised commodity price forecasts. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are pointing to strong free cash flow as a key support for their higher fair value assumptions, suggesting the current P/E they are using in models is underpinned by cash generation rather than just sentiment.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

SFR: Free Cash Flow And 2026 Output Guidance Will Support Balanced Risk Profile

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Sandfire Resources higher to A$18.99 from A$18.53. This reflects updated views on free cash flow strength and revised commodity price assumptions feeding into revenue growth, margin, discount rate and future P/E inputs.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

SFR: Updated Production Outlook And Margins Will Likely Support Balanced Risk Profile

Analysts have nudged their price target for Sandfire Resources higher to A$18.53 from A$18.26, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue, profit margins and a slightly lower expected future P/E multiple. What's in the News Sandfire issued new production guidance for fiscal 2026, with Group copper equivalent (CuEq) output expected in a range of 149 kt to 165 kt.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

SFR: Updated Margin And Production Assumptions Will Likely Sustain Balanced Risk Profile

Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price target for Sandfire Resources from A$15.65 to A$18.26, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly revised discount rate and P/E expectations. What's in the News Sandfire Resources issued new production guidance for fiscal 2026, outlining expected Group CuEq production in a range of 149 kt to 165 kt.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

SFR: Higher Margin Assumptions Will Likely Sustain Material Downside Risk

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Sandfire Resources to A$15.65 from A$15.30, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly from A$15.30 to A$15.65.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

SFR: Future Profitability Assumptions Will Likely Expose Downside Risk

Analysts have raised their price target for Sandfire Resources by approximately A$0.64 to A$15.30, citing slightly higher long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions. Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly from A$14.66 to A$15.30 per share, reflecting a modest uplift in intrinsic valuation.
Narrative Update • Dec 01

SFR: Fair Value Will Remain Balanced Despite Marginal Profit Pressure

Analysts have raised their price target for Sandfire Resources slightly, from $14.59 to $14.66, citing modest improvements in projected revenue growth and fair value estimates. Valuation Changes Fair Value has risen slightly from A$14.59 to A$14.66.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

SFR: Profit Margin Outlook Will Not Offset Overvaluation Risk

Narrative Update on Sandfire Resources: Analyst Price Target Change Analysts have increased their price target for Sandfire Resources slightly, raising it from $14.53 to $14.59. The change is attributed to improved profit margin forecasts and a modest uptick in fair value, even though revenue growth expectations have been tempered.
Analysis Article • Nov 01

An Intrinsic Calculation For Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued

Key Insights Sandfire Resources' estimated fair value is AU$26.11 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...
Narrative Update • Nov 01

SFR: Rising Discount Rate May Pressure Price Performance

Analysts have raised Sandfire Resources’ fair value estimate from $13.51 to $14.53 per share, citing improvements in revenue growth and profit margin forecasts as key drivers for the upward revision. Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has increased from A$13.51 to A$14.53 per share.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Motheo Copper Mine And MATSA Will Secure Future Supply

Analysts have raised their price target for Sandfire Resources from $12.26 to $13.51. They highlighted improved profit margins and a more favorable long-term outlook as key drivers for the update.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Motheo Copper Mine And MATSA Will Secure Future Supply

Analysts have raised their price target for Sandfire Resources from $11.87 to $12.26 per share. They cite improved revenue growth projections and a higher forecasted fair value for the company.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Motheo Copper Mine And MATSA Will Secure Future Supply

Sandfire Resources’ future P/E has risen sharply while revenue growth forecasts have weakened, suggesting a less favorable earnings outlook, though the consensus price target has only edged up slightly to A$11.87. Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for Sandfire Resources The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from A$11.69 to A$11.87.
Analysis Article • Aug 28

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Sandfire Resources Limited's (ASX:SFR) Revenues Yet

Sandfire Resources Limited's ( ASX:SFR ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.2x might make it look like a strong buy...
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New Narrative • May 11

MATSA And Motheo Production Will Advance Operational Efficiency

Projected production increases and successful cost management at MATSA and Motheo could boost revenue and enhance financial stability.

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How Sandfire Resources makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.

Earnings and Revenue History

ASX:SFR Revenue, expenses and earnings (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
31 Dec 251,2891392210
30 Sep 251,2391162150
30 Jun 251,189932090
31 Mar 251,139901980
31 Dec 241,086871900
30 Sep 241,011351830
30 Jun 24935-171770
31 Mar 24864-471780
31 Dec 23794-781790
30 Sep 23801-651860
30 Jun 23808-521920
31 Mar 23929-112090
31 Dec 221,051292260
30 Sep 22990702140
30 Jun 229291112020
31 Mar 227981251810
31 Dec 216671391590
30 Sep 216371341490
30 Jun 216081291390
31 Mar 215731031300
31 Dec 20521751180
30 Sep 20486631110
30 Jun 20453511040
31 Mar 2039651940
31 Dec 19443641070
30 Sep 19413671000
30 Jun 19416751010
31 Mar 1941178980
31 Dec 1839879930
30 Sep 1841085910
30 Jun 1842291890
31 Mar 1842786970
31 Dec 17423781040
30 Sep 17414701150
30 Jun 17394601220
31 Mar 17393561230
31 Dec 16373501170
30 Sep 16388451270
30 Jun 16370361260
31 Mar 16389391320
31 Dec 15375401270
30 Sep 15374431180
30 Jun 15422531240

Quality Earnings: SFR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SFR's current net profit margins (10.8%) are higher than last year (8%).

Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SFR's earnings have declined by 10.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SFR's earnings growth over the past year (59%) exceeds its 5-year average (-10.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SFR earnings growth over the past year (59%) did not outperform the Metals and Mining industry 59.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SFR's Return on Equity (7.2%) is considered low.

Return on Assets

Return on Capital Employed

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 15:30
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Sandfire Resources Limited is covered by 29 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Aryan NoroziBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
April LowisBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Glyn LawcockBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited