Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to AU$8.55 in the past week. Revenues of US$942m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.037, an impressive 24% smaller than what broker models predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Sandfire Resources after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Sandfire Resources

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Sandfire Resources are now predicting revenues of US$1.25b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 32% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Sandfire Resources is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.38 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at AU$9.38, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Sandfire Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$11.50 and the most bearish at AU$5.51 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Sandfire Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Sandfire Resources' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Sandfire Resources to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$9.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Sandfire Resources analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Sandfire Resources is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.