Analysts Have Just Cut Their St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) Revenue Estimates By 10%

Today is shaping up negative for St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from twin analysts covering St Barbara is for revenues of AU$227m in 2024, implying a disturbing 30% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing AU$253m of revenue in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on St Barbara, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for St Barbara

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.4% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 30% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect St Barbara to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for St Barbara this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of St Barbara going forwards.

Of course, this isn't the full story. We have estimates for St Barbara from its twin analysts out until 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.