Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Metro Mining Limited (ASX:MMI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Metro Mining
What Is Metro Mining's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Metro Mining had AU$35.8m of debt, at December 2021, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have AU$13.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$21.9m.
How Strong Is Metro Mining's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Metro Mining had liabilities of AU$46.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$63.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had AU$13.9m in cash and AU$16.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$79.6m.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of AU$53.8m, we think shareholders really should watch Metro Mining's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Metro Mining can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
In the last year Metro Mining wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 25%, to AU$160m. Shareholders probably have their fingers crossed that it can grow its way to profits.
Caveat Emptor
Despite the top line growth, Metro Mining still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost a very considerable AU$91m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it burned through AU$18m in negative free cash flow over the last year. That means it's on the risky side of things. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 4 warning signs with Metro Mining (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:MMI
High growth potential and good value.