Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) Valuation in Focus as Critical Minerals Rally Boosts Investor Interest

The latest jump in interest around Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) comes as lithium and critical minerals stocks stage a fresh rally on the ASX. This momentum is fueled by renewed enthusiasm for clean energy and supply chain resilience.

See our latest analysis for Mineral Resources.

MIN’s share price has surged 23% over the past month and 61% across the past 90 days, thanks to sector-wide excitement around lithium and upbeat news from its iron ore operations. While momentum is clearly building in the short term, the past year’s 13% decline in total shareholder return highlights the volatility facing critical minerals stocks. Longer-term gains remain significant.

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With shares vaulting higher in recent months, investors now face a critical question: is Mineral Resources still trading at a valuation discount, or has the recent rally already captured the company’s future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.6% Overvalued

With Mineral Resources shares closing at A$44.14, the most widely followed narrative contends that the fair value is only A$36.60. This casts the recent rally in a different light and sets up a sharp debate about whether the stock has sprinted too far, too fast, beyond what its earnings trajectory can support.

Ongoing investments in infrastructure, logistics (haul roads, transshippers), and automation are already driving operational efficiencies and enabling margin expansion in Mining Services. Future benefits are expected to accrue as volumes increase and cost per tonne decreases, supporting earnings and net margin growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what numerical leaps and strategic bets underpin this sky-high share price? The narrative’s projected margins and growth assumptions fuel a valuation model with some eyebrow-raising underlying estimates. Wondering just how bold those forecasts are and what’s required to achieve that fair value? Don’t miss the full breakdown.

Result: Fair Value of $36.60 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent financial constraints and sustained low lithium prices could challenge the company’s growth outlook and may require a more cautious approach to expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Mineral Resources narrative.

Another View: Value Signals from Revenue Multiples

Stepping back from earnings models, the market’s lens through revenue tells a different story. Mineral Resources trades at a Price-to-Sales of 1.9x, which is cheaper than both its peers (3.7x) and the industry average (123.5x), and is well below the market’s fair ratio of 23.3x. That could point to a valuation opportunity, or it may indicate that investors remain wary due to its recent losses. Can the company close this gap as conditions change?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Mineral Resources Narrative

If these perspectives stir fresh questions or you see things differently, you can easily run your own numbers and shape a personal view in just a few minutes, then Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mineral Resources research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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