Lynas Rare Earths' (ASX:LYC) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals

By
Simply Wall St
Published
September 03, 2021
ASX:LYC
Source: Shutterstock

Lynas Rare Earths Limited's (ASX:LYC) stock was strong after they reported robust earnings. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.

Check out our latest analysis for Lynas Rare Earths

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:LYC Earnings and Revenue History September 3rd 2021

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Lynas Rare Earths issued 6.0% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of Lynas Rare Earths' EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting Lynas Rare Earths' Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.

In the long term, if Lynas Rare Earths' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Lynas Rare Earths' Profit Performance

Over the last year Lynas Rare Earths issued new shares and so, there's a noteworthy divergence between EPS and net income growth. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Lynas Rare Earths' true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. On the bright side, the company showed enough improvement to book a profit this year, after losing money last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Lynas Rare Earths has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Lynas Rare Earths' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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