A Look At The Fair Value Of Liontown Resources Limited (ASX:LTR)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Liontown Resources is AU$3.42 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With AU$2.85 share price, Liontown Resources appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Our fair value estimate is 25% higher than Liontown Resources' analyst price target of AU$2.74

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Liontown Resources Limited (ASX:LTR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Liontown Resources

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	-AU$536.2m	AU$139.0m	AU$453.1m	AU$485.3m	AU$509.7m	AU$530.7m	AU$549.2m	AU$565.9m	AU$581.4m	AU$596.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 5.03%	Est @ 4.12%	Est @ 3.49%	Est @ 3.04%	Est @ 2.73%	Est @ 2.52%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%	-AU$498	AU$120	AU$364	AU$362	AU$354	AU$342	AU$329	AU$315	AU$301	AU$287

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$2.3b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$596m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.0%) = AU$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$11b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)¹⁰= AU$5.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$7.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$2.9, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Liontown Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.114. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Liontown Resources, we've put together three fundamental items you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that Liontown Resources is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does LTR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.