Liontown Resources Limited

ASX:LTR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.0b

Liontown Resources Valuation

Is LTR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LTR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LTR (A$0.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.82)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LTR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LTR?

Key metric: As LTR is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for LTR. This is calculated by dividing LTR's market cap by their current book value.
What is LTR's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.5x
BookAU$770.07m
Market CapAU$1.95b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does LTR's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for LTR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.6x
ILU Iluka Resources
1x5.5%AU$2.3b
ADT Adriatic Metals
5.6x50.6%AU$1.4b
WA1 WA1 Resources
14.6x67.3%AU$983.2m
IGO IGO
1.2x41.1%AU$3.8b
LTR Liontown Resources
2.5x56.4%AU$2.0b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: LTR is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (5.6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does LTR's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

17 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals
0.2x12.6%US$29.98m
JRV Jervois Global
0.1xn/aUS$21.09m
ADN Andromeda Metals
0.2x25.5%US$14.33m
CTO Citigold
0.1xn/aUS$7.80m
LTR 2.5xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies95PB00.81.62.43.24+
17 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: LTR is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.5x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.2x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LTR's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LTR PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.5x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LTR's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LTR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.79
AU$0.90
+13.3%
37.8%AU$1.75AU$0.45n/a13
Nov ’25AU$0.81
AU$0.94
+16.4%
36.8%AU$1.75AU$0.45n/a13
Oct ’25AU$0.79
AU$1.07
+36.2%
34.3%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Sep ’25AU$0.75
AU$1.12
+49.3%
29.8%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Aug ’25AU$0.96
AU$1.14
+18.0%
28.5%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Jul ’25AU$0.89
AU$1.21
+35.6%
27.7%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
Jun ’25AU$1.30
AU$1.32
+1.5%
23.5%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
May ’25AU$1.23
AU$1.31
+6.9%
24.5%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
Apr ’25AU$1.17
AU$1.32
+13.0%
24.9%AU$1.90AU$0.70n/a12
Mar ’25AU$1.29
AU$1.08
-16.0%
22.8%AU$1.60AU$0.70n/a12
Feb ’25AU$0.99
AU$1.21
+21.7%
33.4%AU$2.30AU$0.75n/a12
Jan ’25AU$1.65
AU$1.75
+6.2%
26.3%AU$2.75AU$1.00n/a12
Dec ’24AU$1.36
AU$1.97
+45.5%
24.8%AU$2.75AU$1.30n/a11
Nov ’24AU$1.56
AU$2.03
+30.4%
22.7%AU$2.75AU$1.30AU$0.8111
Oct ’24AU$2.94
AU$2.77
-5.7%
19.6%AU$3.35AU$1.35AU$0.799
Sep ’24AU$2.62
AU$2.64
+0.8%
18.8%AU$3.35AU$1.40AU$0.7510
Aug ’24AU$2.75
AU$2.67
-3.1%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$0.9610
Jul ’24AU$2.83
AU$2.67
-5.8%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$0.8910
Jun ’24AU$2.73
AU$2.67
-2.4%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.3010
May ’24AU$2.71
AU$2.61
-3.9%
18.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.239
Apr ’24AU$2.58
AU$2.48
-3.7%
21.2%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.179
Mar ’24AU$1.41
AU$1.93
+37.1%
21.8%AU$2.81AU$1.49AU$1.2910
Feb ’24AU$1.54
AU$1.95
+27.0%
25.6%AU$2.81AU$1.49AU$0.997
Jan ’24AU$1.32
AU$2.21
+67.5%
29.1%AU$3.40AU$1.50AU$1.657
Dec ’23AU$2.02
AU$2.41
+19.1%
23.5%AU$3.40AU$1.80AU$1.366
Nov ’23AU$1.94
AU$2.21
+14.4%
21.5%AU$2.87AU$1.50AU$1.565

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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