Adriatic Metals PLC

ASX:ADT Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.3b

Adriatic Metals Valuation

Is ADT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADT (A$4.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADT?

Key metric: As ADT barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for ADT. This is calculated by dividing ADT's market cap by their current book value.
What is ADT's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio5.4x
BookUS$157.77m
Market CapUS$858.72m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does ADT's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for ADT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.7x
IMD Imdex
2.3x19.6%AU$1.3b
VUL Vulcan Energy Resources
2.9x17.0%AU$1.3b
AZS Azure Minerals
13xn/aAU$1.7b
PRN Perenti
0.7x23.3%AU$1.2b
ADT Adriatic Metals
5.4x50.6%AU$1.3b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: ADT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.4x) compared to the peer average (4.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does ADT's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals
0.2x12.6%US$32.33m
JRV Jervois Global
0.1xn/aUS$19.33m
ADN Andromeda Metals
0.2x25.5%US$15.44m
CTO Citigold
0.1xn/aUS$7.80m
ADT 5.4xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies93PB00.81.62.43.24+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: ADT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.4x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADT's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADT PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio5.4x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ADT's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.07
AU$4.57
+12.2%
15.6%AU$5.30AU$3.60n/a3
Nov ’25AU$4.23
AU$4.57
+8.0%
15.6%AU$5.30AU$3.60n/a3
Oct ’25AU$3.50
AU$4.57
+30.5%
15.6%AU$5.30AU$3.60n/a3
Sep ’25AU$3.00
AU$5.80
+93.4%
34.6%AU$8.61AU$4.00n/a3
Aug ’25AU$3.20
AU$5.88
+83.8%
36.0%AU$8.84AU$4.00n/a3
Jul ’25AU$3.85
AU$6.06
+57.5%
33.6%AU$8.84AU$4.00n/a3
Jun ’25AU$4.10
AU$6.42
+56.6%
37.7%AU$8.84AU$4.00n/a2
May ’25AU$4.56
AU$6.06
+33.0%
33.6%AU$8.84AU$4.00n/a3
Apr ’25AU$3.95
AU$4.15
+5.1%
3.6%AU$4.30AU$4.00n/a2
Mar ’25AU$3.28
AU$4.05
+23.5%
6.2%AU$4.30AU$3.80n/a2
Feb ’25AU$3.58
AU$4.05
+13.1%
6.2%AU$4.30AU$3.80n/a2
Jan ’25AU$4.01
AU$4.08
+1.6%
6.7%AU$4.35AU$3.80n/a2
Dec ’24AU$3.12
AU$4.08
+30.6%
6.7%AU$4.35AU$3.80n/a2
Nov ’24AU$3.44
AU$4.08
+18.5%
6.7%AU$4.35AU$3.80AU$4.232
Oct ’24AU$3.64
AU$4.08
+12.0%
6.7%AU$4.35AU$3.80AU$3.502
Sep ’24AU$3.80
AU$3.83
+0.7%
13.7%AU$4.35AU$3.30AU$3.002
Aug ’24AU$3.46
AU$3.83
+10.5%
13.7%AU$4.35AU$3.30AU$3.202
Jul ’24AU$3.18
AU$3.78
+18.7%
12.6%AU$4.25AU$3.30AU$3.852
Jun ’24AU$3.04
AU$3.83
+25.8%
3.3%AU$3.95AU$3.70AU$4.102
May ’24AU$3.53
AU$3.83
+8.4%
3.3%AU$3.95AU$3.70AU$4.562
Apr ’24AU$3.80
AU$3.83
+0.7%
3.3%AU$3.95AU$3.70AU$3.952
Mar ’24AU$3.24
AU$3.78
+16.5%
4.6%AU$3.95AU$3.60AU$3.282
Feb ’24AU$3.25
AU$3.78
+16.2%
4.6%AU$3.95AU$3.60AU$3.582
Jan ’24AU$3.15
AU$3.78
+19.8%
4.6%AU$3.95AU$3.60AU$4.012
Dec ’23AU$3.18
AU$3.60
+13.2%
9.7%AU$3.95AU$3.25AU$3.122
Nov ’23AU$2.46
AU$3.60
+46.3%
9.7%AU$3.95AU$3.25AU$3.442

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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