AU$1.83: That's What Analysts Think Calix Limited (ASX:CXL) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Calix Limited (ASX:CXL) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 7.6% short of analyst estimates at AU$28m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was AU$0.096, 23% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Calix after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Calix's dual analysts is for revenues of AU$31.7m in 2026. This reflects a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting AU$0.11 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of AU$39.3m and AU$0.11 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

See our latest analysis for Calix

The analysts have cut their price target 8.0% to AU$1.83per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Calix's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Calix is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Calix going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Calix (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.