The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Brickworks Limited (ASX:BKW) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is Brickworks's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Brickworks had AU$662.3m in debt in July 2021; about the same as the year before. However, it also had AU$139.8m in cash, and so its net debt is AU$522.4m.
How Strong Is Brickworks' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Brickworks had liabilities of AU$268.3m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$1.28b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had AU$139.8m in cash and AU$145.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$1.26b.
This deficit isn't so bad because Brickworks is worth AU$3.89b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Brickworks shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (8.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.99 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Brickworks saw its EBIT tank 53% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Brickworks can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Brickworks's free cash flow amounted to 44% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Brickworks's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider Brickworks to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Brickworks , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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Access Free AnalysisThis article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About ASX:BKW
Brickworks
Engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of building products for the residential and commercial markets in Australia and North America.
Moderate growth potential with imperfect balance sheet.