Investors in Horizon Oil (ASX:HZN) have seen incredible returns of 853% over the past five years

Horizon Oil Limited (ASX:HZN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 16% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. In fact, the share price is 267% higher today. We think it's more important to dwell on the long term returns than the short term returns. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Horizon Oil. Read for free now.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Horizon Oil actually saw its EPS drop 14% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

We note that the dividend has not increased, so that doesn't seem to explain the increase, either. But it's reasonably likely that the 10% annual compound revenue growth is considered evidence that Horizon Oil has plenty of growth ahead of it. Indeed, revenue growth, rather than EPS, might be the current focus of the business.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Horizon Oil, it has a TSR of 853% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Horizon Oil shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 23% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 57% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Horizon Oil (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Horizon Oil better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.