We're Interested To See How Carnarvon Petroleum (ASX:CVN) Uses Its Cash Hoard To Grow

There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.

So, the natural question for Carnarvon Petroleum (ASX:CVN) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

View our latest analysis for Carnarvon Petroleum

When Might Carnarvon Petroleum Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In December 2020, Carnarvon Petroleum had AU$106m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was AU$14m over the trailing twelve months. Therefore, from December 2020 it had 7.7 years of cash runway. While this is only one measure of its cash burn situation, it certainly gives us the impression that holders have nothing to worry about. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Is Carnarvon Petroleum's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Carnarvon Petroleum isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. Notably, its cash burn was actually down by 77% in the last year, which is a real positive in terms of resilience, but uninspiring when it comes to investment for growth. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

Can Carnarvon Petroleum Raise More Cash Easily?

There's no doubt Carnarvon Petroleum's rapidly reducing cash burn brings comfort, but even if it's only hypothetical, it's always worth asking how easily it could raise more money to fund further growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Carnarvon Petroleum has a market capitalisation of AU$391m and burnt through AU$14m last year, which is 3.5% of the company's market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.

So, Should We Worry About Carnarvon Petroleum's Cash Burn?

As you can probably tell by now, we're not too worried about Carnarvon Petroleum's cash burn. For example, we think its cash runway suggests that the company is on a good path. And even its cash burn relative to its market cap was very encouraging. After considering a range of factors in this article, we're pretty relaxed about its cash burn, since the company seems to be in a good position to continue to fund its growth. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 2 warning signs for Carnarvon Petroleum (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course Carnarvon Petroleum may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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