Carnarvon Energy (ASX:CVN) - Share price, News & Analysis

CVN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

CVN Stock Overview

Carnarvon Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas in Australia.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 137.66% per year

Risk Analysis

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue (A$0)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Carnarvon Energy Competitors

Norwest Energy

ASX:NWE

AU$268.3m

Cooper Energy

ASX:COE

AU$474.1m

Strike Energy

ASX:STX

AU$519.0m

Melbana Energy

ASX:MAY

AU$227.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Carnarvon Energy
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$0.20
52 Week High	AU$0.43
52 Week Low	AU$0.18
Beta	2.24
1 Month Change	-15.22%
3 Month Change	-40.91%
1 Year Change	-22.00%
3 Year Change	-67.50%
5 Year Change	146.84%
Change since IPO	-91.88%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 15

We're Not Very Worried About Carnarvon Energy's (ASX:CVN) Cash Burn Rate

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the...

Shareholder Returns

	CVN	AU Oil and Gas	AU Market
7D	-4.9%	-4.7%	1.4%
1Y	-22.0%	21.3%	-11.3%

Return vs Industry: CVN underperformed the Australian Oil and Gas industry which returned 21.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CVN underperformed the Australian Market which returned -11.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CVN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CVN volatility
CVN Average Weekly Movement	9.7%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	11.5%
Market Average Movement	9.7%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: CVN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CVN's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1983	n/a	Adrian Cook	https://www.carnarvon.com.au

Carnarvon Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas in Australia. The company owns interests in the Dorado project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia; the Buffalo project located in the Bonaparte Basin; and the Labyrinth project located in the Roebuck Basin in the North West Shelf of Western Australia. It also holds interests in the Taurus project located in the North West Shelf of Western Australia; the Condor and Eagle projects located in the Vulcan sub basin in the Bonaparte basin; and the Outtrim project located in the Barrow sub-basin within the Carnarvon basin of the North West Shelf of Australia.

Carnarvon Energy Fundamentals Summary

How do Carnarvon Energy's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CVN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$351.04m
Earnings (TTM)	-AU$22.43m
Revenue (TTM)	n/a

0.0x

P/S Ratio

-15.7x

P/E Ratio

Is CVN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CVN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$0
Cost of Revenue	AU$1.98m
Gross Profit	-AU$1.98m
Other Expenses	AU$20.45m
Earnings	-AU$22.43m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.012
Gross Margin	0.00%
Net Profit Margin	0.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did CVN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CVN. This is calculated by dividing CVN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CVN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$351.04m

CVN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-46.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does CVN's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

CVN PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for CVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.5x
NWE Norwest Energy	34.2x	-56.6%	AU$268.3m
COE Cooper Energy	1.5x	40.9%	AU$474.1m
STX Strike Energy	4.3x	5.9%	AU$519.0m
MAY Melbana Energy	9.8x	n/a	AU$227.3m
CVN Carnarvon Energy	1.7x	137.7%	AU$351.0m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: CVN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Australian Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: CVN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (1.7x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVN's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVN PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	1.7x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CVN's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CVN's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CVN's fair value for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CVN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Carnarvon Energy forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

137.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CVN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: CVN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: CVN is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CVN's revenue (158% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CVN's revenue (158% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CVN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.8%).

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Past Performance

How has Carnarvon Energy performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

46.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CVN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: CVN is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CVN is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 46.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CVN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: CVN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (299.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CVN has a negative Return on Equity (-10.58%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Carnarvon Energy's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CVN's short term assets (A$78.5M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$3.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: CVN's short term assets (A$78.5M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$460.0K).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CVN is debt free.

Reducing Debt: CVN has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: CVN has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: CVN has sufficient cash runway for 1.8 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 1.8% each year.

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Dividend

What is Carnarvon Energy current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CVN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CVN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CVN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CVN's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CVN has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Adrian Cook (54 yo)

10.92yrs

Tenure

AU$746,040

Compensation

Mr. Adrian Caldwell Cook, B.Bus., C.A., M.App.Fin., FAICD has been the Chief Executive officer and Managing Director of Carnarvon Energy Limited (formerly known as Carnarvon Petroleum Limited) since July 1...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Adrian's total compensation ($USD518.52K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD606.74K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Adrian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CVN's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CVN's board of directors are considered experienced (7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CVN insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 15%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30