Carnarvon Petroleum (ASX:CVN) Is In A Strong Position To Grow Its Business

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So, the natural question for Carnarvon Petroleum (ASX:CVN) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

See our latest analysis for Carnarvon Petroleum

How Long Is Carnarvon Petroleum's Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at December 2020, Carnarvon Petroleum had cash of AU$106m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through AU$14m. So it had a cash runway of about 7.7 years from December 2020. While this is only one measure of its cash burn situation, it certainly gives us the impression that holders have nothing to worry about. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

How Is Carnarvon Petroleum's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Carnarvon Petroleum didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. The 77% reduction in its cash burn over the last twelve months may be good for protecting the balance sheet but it hardly points to imminent growth. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Easily Can Carnarvon Petroleum Raise Cash?

There's no doubt Carnarvon Petroleum's rapidly reducing cash burn brings comfort, but even if it's only hypothetical, it's always worth asking how easily it could raise more money to fund further growth. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Since it has a market capitalisation of AU$415m, Carnarvon Petroleum's AU$14m in cash burn equates to about 3.3% of its market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

How Risky Is Carnarvon Petroleum's Cash Burn Situation?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way Carnarvon Petroleum is burning through its cash. For example, we think its cash runway suggests that the company is on a good path. And even its cash burn relative to its market cap was very encouraging. Taking all the factors in this report into account, we're not at all worried about its cash burn, as the business appears well capitalized to spend as needs be. Taking an in-depth view of risks, we've identified 1 warning sign for Carnarvon Petroleum that you should be aware of before investing.

If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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