Stock Analysis

Despite the downward trend in earnings at Solvar (ASX:SVR) the stock hikes 10%, bringing one-year gains to 77%

ASX:SVR
Source: Shutterstock

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Solvar Limited (ASX:SVR) share price is up 64% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 2.2% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 37% in the last three years.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over the last twelve months, Solvar actually shrank its EPS by 41%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

We haven't seen Solvar increase dividend payments yet, so the yield probably hasn't helped drive the share higher. And at a glance the languishing revenue does not impress, though a closer look might help explain the market optimism.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:SVR Earnings and Revenue Growth April 28th 2025

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Solvar's TSR for the last 1 year was 77%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Solvar shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 77% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Solvar better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Solvar is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.