Results: FleetPartners Group Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, FleetPartners Group Limited (ASX:FPR) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of AU$677m arriving 3.9% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were AU$0.30, 7.0% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on FleetPartners Group after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for FleetPartners Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for FleetPartners Group from four analysts is for revenues of AU$713.9m in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 10% to AU$0.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$672.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.26 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice gain to earnings per share in particular.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 8.1% to AU$3.05per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic FleetPartners Group analyst has a price target of AU$3.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$3.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that FleetPartners Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 5.5% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. Although FleetPartners Group's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around FleetPartners Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on FleetPartners Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for FleetPartners Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with FleetPartners Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.